Amazon just destroyed the tablet market as we know it

AlexDeGruvenAlexDeGruven Wut?Meechigan Icrontian
edited October 2011 in Science & Tech
With the release of the subsidized <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0051VVOB2/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=icrontic-20&linkCode=as2&camp=217145&creative=399373&creativeASIN=B0051VVOB2">$200 Kindle Fire</a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=icrontic-20&l=as2&o=1&a=B0051VVOB2&camp=217145&creative=399373&quot; width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" />, how long do we think the lower-end of the tablet market is going to survive?

All the big players who were marketing their ~7" tablets for $300+ have now just been shown the door.

ZDNet has a good article describing how the fallout is probably going to shake out: http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/amazons-kindle-fire-just-nuked-the-tablet-market-winners-and-losers/59147

Not that I didn't feel bad for them already, but now I REALLY pity anyone who bought a Playbook.
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Comments

  • ThraxThrax 🐌 Austin, TX Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    Except the Kindle Fire isn't a "real" tablet. It's like the stock Nook Color in that it has a curated set of features and no access to the full Android experience. It plays in a different space.
  • AlexDeGruvenAlexDeGruven Wut? Meechigan Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    Thrax wrote:
    Except the Kindle Fire isn't a "real" tablet. It's like the stock Nook Color in that it has a curated set of features and no access to the full Android experience. It plays in a different space.

    It plays in a different space until Cyanogen and crew get ahold of it.

    It's definitely stronger than the Nook color both in spec's and app availability already. Once it gets unlocked to run a stock-ish version of Android, it's going to be something else entirely.
  • ThraxThrax 🐌 Austin, TX Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    The Nook Color was basically as powerful as any other Android tablet for the majority of its lifetime. It didn't sink the tablet market for its bargain basement price then, and the Fire won't now. Not doubting that CM won't do wonders with it--hell, maybe it'll get Honeycomb, too--but it's not a market ruiner.
  • AlexDeGruvenAlexDeGruven Wut? Meechigan Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    Maybe my choice of wording was inappropriate. I was thinking more along the lines of a real shake-up. A destruction of the current market segmentation into a new model of low vs. high-end.
  • MiracleManSMiracleManS Chambersburg, PA Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    Thrax wrote:
    The Nook Color was basically as powerful as any other Android tablet for the majority of its lifetime. It didn't sink the tablet market for its bargain basement price then, and the Fire won't now. Not doubting that CM won't do wonders with it--hell, maybe it'll get Honeycomb, too--but it's not a market ruiner.

    Unless Ars is wrong, it's getting 3.1.

    http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/news/2011/09/amazon-to-unveil-199-70inch-kindle-fire-tablet.ars
  • ThraxThrax 🐌 Austin, TX Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    Ars isn't wrong, they just didn't tell the full story. It has a 100% custom skin on top of Android 3.1, that's specific to Amazon and the way they want you to interact with their content. There's no market, no desktop, etc. It's just like the Nook.
  • CBCB Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Der Millionendorf- Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    The thing is this: 99% of the people who want a tablet do not want to have to root it. They will pay $1000 for a "real" tablet, and it wont even cross their minds to buy a $200 "reader" and turn it into a tablet.

    Getting CM on a kindle does not effect the market at large.
  • AlexDeGruvenAlexDeGruven Wut? Meechigan Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    It will be rooted in no time, and sideloading/custom builds won't take long after that.

    If it supports ADB (which it's unlikely NOT to), it's only a matter of time.
  • ThraxThrax 🐌 Austin, TX Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    CB wrote:
    The thing is this: 99% of the people who want a tablet do not want to have to root it. They will pay $1000 for a "real" tablet, and it wont even cross their minds to buy a $200 "reader" and turn it into a tablet.

    Getting CM on a kindle does not effect the market at large.

    This. Exactly. Consider that CyanogenMod has less than 1,000,000 unique installations since the project's inception. What fraction of that does anyone think went to the nook? 5000? 10000? And how many is that when compared to the tens of millions of tablets sold?

    Hacked tablets are a drop in the bucket of a drop in the bucket.
  • MiracleManSMiracleManS Chambersburg, PA Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    I think it's also a marketing thing. None of these companies want to let people know they can actually get that kind of functionality with minimal work. People don't want to work for these things.

    I still haven't found a compelling reason to buy a tablet other than being able to sit on a couch and read an article or book easily. And that's certainly not worth $1000.
  • AlexDeGruvenAlexDeGruven Wut? Meechigan Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    I think that's the key for the non-modders. The Fire firmly wedges itself in between the current midrange devices like the Galaxy Tab and the bottom-of-the-barrel devices like the Cruz. That's a pretty good market segment to be in, I think.
  • Cliff_ForsterCliff_Forster Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    Thrax wrote:
    Except the Kindle Fire isn't a "real" tablet. It's like the stock Nook Color in that it has a curated set of features and no access to the full Android experience. It plays in a different space.

    It plays in the space that most people care about. It browses the web, emails, reads, plays music and video, offers casual games. It does all this, its priced right (its an impulse buy at $199), it has the worlds finest digital content distribution model behind it with fuss free cloud storage. The Kindle Fire is going to change everything.
  • UPSLynxUPSLynx :KAPPA: Redwood City, CA Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    The HP Touchpad sale madness taught us one thing - consumers want better tablets at cheaper prices. iPad not withstanding. Though the modding scene is awesome, a device like the Fire (or even Nook Color) isn't enough to shake up the tablet market. We need OEM fully functional tablets at lower pricepoints before we'll see any major kind of reform.
  • BasilBasil Nubcaek England Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    So what extra features/functionality does a "real" tablet offer that average users care about?

    Or, how have Amazon crippled the Fire?
  • ThraxThrax 🐌 Austin, TX Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    A real tablet offers the ability to download applications outside of what the tablet is supplied with. Maybe you want more than videos, email and a browser. A real tablet can do that for you, curated devices like the Nook and the Fire cannot.
  • BasilBasil Nubcaek England Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    If I was buying I would definitely get something with access to the full appstore but I'm not asking about me or other techy types.

    My flatmate's/sister's/dad's computers do near nothing but music, videos, email and surfing. They could pick up a kindle fire and never notice that angry birds was coming from amazons app store rather than the android market.
  • Cliff_ForsterCliff_Forster Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    Thrax wrote:
    A real tablet offers the ability to download applications outside of what the tablet is supplied with. Maybe you want more than videos, email and a browser. A real tablet can do that for you, curated devices like the Nook and the Fire cannot.

    I'm sure they can, but choose not to. Limiting the platform can be a good thing in many ways. It offers simplicity, and its focus is on doing what it does well, instead of doing everything. The Kindle Fire is a real tablet, its just doing things differently.

    Plus, consider this, you know there is going to be cloud based application development. Without a doubt it will have apps and the local hardware will not be a limiting factor. The platform will evolve given time. Most exciting of all, everything about the delivery model is better, everything!

    It's the same cloud based model that Apple and Google dabble in but are not fully committed to. Amazon is going to push the chips in and say, people are ready for this, and I guarantee you, once you start getting your content with whispersync you are not going to want to go back. It's the greatest content delivery model ever.

    I'm not going out on a limb when I say this..... The Kindle Fire is the next Ipod, it's going to be that big, everyone will have one, and everyone will want to purchase digital content with Amazon. It's going to be a game changer. Check with me in a year when Amazon is the number one distributor for every kind of digital content imaginable except for 3D games and Pronz.....
  • UPSLynxUPSLynx :KAPPA: Redwood City, CA Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    'Real' tablets also offer other things such as built in cameras, 3G access, microphones and such.

    I disagree with Cliff's assessment that Kindle Fire is the next iPod. The reason why iPod did so well was because everyone knew what that device did, and they knew it augmented the way they were currently doing it - it was a music player, and it was a simple solution that replaced that one thing that everone already had: CD players.

    The Kindle Fire isn't that simple to the average Joe. If you showed my mom the Kindle Fire and said "hey, look at this device. Do you want it?" She would say no. She wouldn't know what to do with a device like that by just simply looking at it or reading about it. The iPod was different. You held that up to my mother and she would immediately realize how it improved her music listening experience over a CD player.

    Music is for everyone. Tablets are not. We won't see the kind of adoption Apple had for the Fire.
  • Cliff_ForsterCliff_Forster Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    UPSLynx wrote:
    'Real' tablets also offer other things such as built in cameras, 3G access, microphones and such.

    I disagree with Cliff's assessment that Kindle Fire is the next iPod. The reason why iPod did so well was because everyone knew what that device did, and they knew it augmented the way they were currently doing it - it was a music player, and it was a simple solution that replaced that one thing that everone already had: CD players.

    The Kindle Fire isn't that simple to the average Joe. If you showed my mom the Kindle Fire and said "hey, look at this device. Do you want it?" She would say no. She wouldn't know what to do with a device like that by just simply looking at it or reading about it. The iPod was different. You held that up to my mother and she would immediately realize how it improved her music listening experience over a CD player.

    Music is for everyone. Tablets are not. We won't see the kind of adoption Apple had for the Fire.

    I'll bet you a six pack. :cool:
  • GargGarg Purveyor of Lincoln Nightmares Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    CB wrote:
    The thing is this: 99% of the people who want a tablet do not want to have to root it. They will pay $1000 for a "real" tablet, and it wont even cross their minds to buy a $200 "reader" and turn it into a tablet.

    Getting CM on a kindle does not effect the market at large.

    I'd rearrange that a little and say that people are far more willing to buy a $200 reader that looks like (read: is) a tablet than buy a $1000 tablet. If it has access to the Amazon Appstore, then it will do what most people do with a tablet. The only missing feature I think average Joes might care about is Bluetooth. Nobody will miss the desktop. This whole rooting & flashing business? More people would do it if they needed to in order to use the device how they wanted, but it'll already do just about everything.
    It plays in the space that most people care about. It browses the web, emails, reads, plays music and video, offers casual games. It does all this, its priced right (its an impulse buy at $199), it has the worlds finest digital content distribution model behind it with fuss free cloud storage. The Kindle Fire is going to change everything.

    Precisely. Now, they just need to market the hell out of it if they want it to "change everything." iPads have a shitton of mindshare and while that's an obstacle, their biggest market is probably people who don't have tablets yet. I hope they're at least successful enough to drive the prices down of other good tablets.
  • RWBRWB Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    This Kindle Fire doesn't seem to have any kind of expandable memory.... that is a big deciding factor in my book.
  • RootWyrmRootWyrm Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    http://cdespinosa.posterous.com/fire
    All your browsing actually happens on Amazon's servers. As in, the SSL connection isn't to your Fire. It's to an Amazon EC2 instance that relays it to your Fire. You thought Google and Failbook knowing every website you visited was bad? Amazon's tablet is even worse. Suddenly their efforts in hiring mathematicians and specialties related to behavior analysis make sense.
    No sale.
  • GargGarg Purveyor of Lincoln Nightmares Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    UPSLynx wrote:
    'Real' tablets also offer other things such as built in cameras, 3G access, microphones and such.

    These aren't foundational features, though. Real cars have satellite navigation, twin turbos, and all-wheel drive, but they represent a small proportion of cars sold. Because utility is #1.
    UPSLynx wrote:
    The Kindle Fire isn't that simple to the average Joe. If you showed my mom the Kindle Fire and said "hey, look at this device. Do you want it?" She would say no. She wouldn't know what to do with a device like that by just simply looking at it or reading about it. The iPod was different. You held that up to my mother and she would immediately realize how it improved her music listening experience over a CD player.

    Music is for everyone. Tablets are not. We won't see the kind of adoption Apple had for the Fire.

    True, it's not exactly like the iPod. It's anyone's guess where the market saturation point is. But, Amazon was savvy to stay out until now. Apple and Android tablet manufacturers have already done most of the hard work of convincing people tablets were a thing people needed.
  • GargGarg Purveyor of Lincoln Nightmares Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    RootWyrm wrote:
    http://cdespinosa.posterous.com/fire
    All your browsing actually happens on Amazon's servers. As in, the SSL connection isn't to your Fire. It's to an Amazon EC2 instance that relays it to your Fire. You thought Google and Failbook knowing every website you visited was bad? Amazon's tablet is even worse. Suddenly their efforts in hiring mathematicians and specialties related to behavior analysis make sense.
    No sale.

    That'd keep me from buying one, too. I wonder if it'll become a bigger deal.
  • Cliff_ForsterCliff_Forster Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    RWB wrote:
    This Kindle Fire doesn't seem to have any kind of expandable memory.... that is a big deciding factor in my book.

    You won't need it, it's all on the cloud.
  • AlexDeGruvenAlexDeGruven Wut? Meechigan Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    RootWyrm wrote:
    http://cdespinosa.posterous.com/fire
    All your browsing actually happens on Amazon's servers. As in, the SSL connection isn't to your Fire. It's to an Amazon EC2 instance that relays it to your Fire. You thought Google and Failbook knowing every website you visited was bad? Amazon's tablet is even worse. Suddenly their efforts in hiring mathematicians and specialties related to behavior analysis make sense.
    No sale.

    Browsers available on the Amazon App Store (included on the Fire, no sideloading needed):
    Dolphin Mini
    Opera
    Opera Mini
    xScope

    Sideloading opens a whole world of anything that will run on 3.1 honeycomb.

    You don't HAVE to use Silk.

    Personally, I'd load Opera or Dolphin and use that for anything I want to do SSL with or needs privacy, and use Silk for anything I want to perform better.

    I think people are confusing the term "Included Browser" with "The only browser supported on the device".
  • GargGarg Purveyor of Lincoln Nightmares Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    I think people are confusing the term "Included Browser" with "The only browser supported on the device".

    Just like the rooting conversation, I think we're confusing users like us with most users. Most users will use the included browser. Choosing to use another browser because it's my preference is fine, but having to choose another because my device manufacturer might be spying on me is something else.
  • Cliff_ForsterCliff_Forster Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    I'm going to go slightly off topic here, but since we are concerned about Silk's browser security, let me clue you all in on something, being 100% real now...

    Privacy on the internet is about as real as the tooth fairy, it's a little fib we tell ourselves so we sleep better at night. I don't care how the browser functions, if you are requesting data its all being recorded somewhere, somehow and if that data has perceived value to the company's that traffic that data, its getting shared, traded and sold and there is not one thing we can do to stop it. It cracks me up when people get all bent out of shape over a little change to the facebook privacy policy. Do people really think that policy makes a lick of difference? The policy's only purpose is to help the public maintain its delusional belief that somehow all personal data is safe in some magic lock box that nobody else can see. Come on, how would anyone have a clue what happens to all that data? If they want to mine our data to share or sell to advertisers, how on earth would we know? How would we stop it? Guess what folks, WE CAN'T! We wield absolutely no power against these multi billion dollar corporations that find value in what we do online.

    Learn to stop worrying and love the bomb. It's the only option we all have, unless we are going to straight up quit the internet.
  • shwaipshwaip bluffin' with my muffin Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    If all i wanted was a tablet to root, would this or the nook color be a better choice? (Given that this will be rooted).
  • ThraxThrax 🐌 Austin, TX Icrontian
    edited September 2011
    This by a long, long shot. The hardware is very powerful and stands a good chance of receiving Honeycomb (and Ice Cream Sandwich) based on the hardware. It's very likely that I'll get one based on what I think is going to happen with this device.
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