Will desktops still exist in 10 years from now

[WuGgaRoO]

i think that there is NO WAY that desktops will be rendered obsolete within 10 years...what do you guys think

[airbornflght]

hard to tell. I think that there will still be desktops per say, but no way to tell how big/small they will be. If you go too small, then you would have to find places to put the hdd, and optical drives, which could be eliminated through flash memory, but that would cost a pretty penny for software to come on a flash drive.

[Winga]

I think 10 years is a little too short. Not only will there be millions of desktop computers around, even if there is new technology, but the likes of M$ won't put so much R&D and money into products that they can't milk for years to come.

[XturnLGod]

yup: for sure. There will be more and more small "computers" (notepads, PDAs, wristband PCs...) but 2 things won't change:
1 - heat (and it's effect on componants)
2 - performance (and the fact that we don't wanna have 900 mhz computers anymore)

[CB]

The only way that it could happen, IMO, is if we switch to a terminal system, where each person just has a set of periferals at home which connect to a remote server, where all of theirpersonal files are stored, and through witch they gain access to the use of all the programs that they have paid for access to.

This system would develop as a final culmination of attempting to protect software rights, and the rights of big-bussiness from the consumer's evil copyright breaking ways... If everything you have access to is through the remote server, then you can't do anything illegal.... This will also make access to computers cheaper and easier for most people, which is the system's only real advantage, and will be used as the justification for the development of the system.

IMO, this system is inevitable, it's possible to arrise within ten years, but I think it would be more like 30-50 years before it is completely integrated into society.

[GHoosdum]

That's a really scary vision, CB.

I think that desktops will still exist in two places:
The workplace - employers know how easy it is for someone to just walk off with a notebook. Big corporate offices won't want to risk it.
The performance user's system - video cards in notebooks just aren't up to par, and I don't see that changing enough within ten years. I could be wrong here.

The typical home user is already making the jump to notebooks only, and it's beginning to show in the lower prices. Or maybe the lower prices is what is resulting in the typical user making the switch?

[tmh88]

I'd really like to see flash memory progress alot and take over optical drives. Think about having no more scratched cd's or haviing to burn them. It would cost more, but think of how much more compact and easy it would be. Instead of haviing to buy packages of 25 or 50 cd's you can just buy one flash stick and just keep adding more. Just like cd's have dropped in price, flash memory is currently. I got a 512mb stick on sale at circuit city a few weeks ago for $10.

I was thinking what if alot of car manufacturers started including stereos that had a usb interface so you could stick your flash drive in and play songs off of that instead of cd's. I've seen units like this, but theyre so freakin expensive.

[Thunder Thighs]

I was thinking what if alot of car manufacturers started including stereos that had a usb interface so you could stick your flash drive in and play songs off of that instead of cd's. I've seen units like this, but theyre so freakin expensive.

You mean something like this one:

http://www.hb-direct.com/EN/P_73.html

I ordered it, but unfortunately couldnt install it :bawling:..British engineering vs. Integra wiring system :banghead:. Hopefully car stereo manufacturers will support this technology in the future, as this one did with a frontside USB port and flashcard slot. Right now ive got this one:

http://www.pioneerelectronics.com/pna/v3/pg/product/details/0,,2076_310069880_291048449,00.html

its got a headphone jack input so u can hook up an mp3 player or other audio device straight into the receiver :thumbsup:.

[airbornflght]

You mean something like this one:

http://www.hb-direct.com/EN/P_73.html

I ordered it, but unfortunately couldnt install it :bawling:..British engineering vs. Integra wiring system :banghead:. Hopefully car stereo manufacturers will support this technology in the future, as this one did with a frontside USB port and flashcard slot. Right now ive got this one:

http://www.pioneerelectronics.com/pna/v3/pg/product/details/0,,2076_310069880_291048449,00.html

its got a headphone jack input so u can hook up an mp3 player or other audio device straight into the receiver :thumbsup:.


lots of stereo manufactures are putting usb ports on headunits now, actually, the model I have is a Kenwood KDC-X889, which is a 2005 model, if I would have gotten the one from this year (KDC-X890), it has a front USB port, some model line, just a year newer with a few extra features like the usb port.

[tmh88]

back to the bit about destkops. As with most technology, I think they will get smaller, and the displays will get bigger. It'd be cool to have a plasma monitor just to say you have one, even though LCD's have come down a ton in price. I know you can hook up plasma tv's, but i'd want to see one optimized for pc's.

[airbornflght]

back to the bit about destkops. As with most technology, I think they will get smaller, and the displays will get bigger. It'd be cool to have a plasma monitor just to say you have one, even though LCD's have come down a ton in price. I know you can hook up plasma tv's, but i'd want to see one optimized for pc's.

sorry, cant use a plasma with a pc afaik, cause last time I checked plasmas will suffer from burn in. They may have found a work around, but I dont think so. I'd just rather have a high quality lcd, as the display quality is amazing on the big high res models.

[V|P]

Although I haven't ever owned my own laptop, I don't like the idea of giving up the power for the space, unless you really need to, like if you need a lappy for college classes or something. I think as long as people like me are around, desktops will be around. Even if someday they can squeeze as much power as desktops give today into laptops, desktops will be even more powerful, and the apps we use on them will require more power, so it evens out.

Anyone know much about quantum computing? I've been reading about it, and it's pretty interesting (whatever I can understand anyway)

[airbornflght]

Although I haven't ever owned my own laptop, I don't like the idea of giving up the power for the space, unless you really need to, like if you need a lappy for college classes or something. I think as long as people like me are around, desktops will be around. Even if someday they can squeeze as much power as desktops give today into laptops, desktops will be even more powerful, and the apps we use on them will require more power, so it evens out.

Anyone know much about quantum computing? I've been reading about it, and it's pretty interesting (whatever I can understand anyway)


quantum computing..pfft...I'm waiting for a processor with optical transistors in it. the speed would be so freaking awesome, though Im not sure how you could have caps and resistors on an optical interface.

[V|P]

quantum computing..pfft...I'm waiting for a processor with optical transistors in it. the speed would be so freaking awesome, though Im not sure how you could have caps and resistors on an optical interface.
Airborn, fill me in. I'm not familliar with this. What do you think of these guys?
http://atomchip.com/_wsn/page4.html

[Leonardo]

The only way that it could happen, IMO, is if we switch to a terminal system, where each person just has a set of periferals at home which connect to a remote server Actually, at the business, that's the old model! That's what my computer environment was in the early 90's - monitors and keyboards (no mice) all connected to an IBM 3B2 "mini computer" (monster) running command line Unix 2.0. It was "dumb terminals" connected to a host computer.

I don't see the home/desktop computer going away anytime soon. How many people will want to trust their personal data to some impersonal entity remote from their home? Not I! The future desktop though, will most likely be miniaturized enough for the computer itself to fit in a small drawer. I would imagine that power supplies will become external just as with laptops'. Perhaps within 15 years or so there won't be any moving parts.

[RWB]

10 to 15 years from now I could imagine no moving parts. And I also could imagine companies trying to get a terminal type system setup, but I'll probably go insane if that occured, in a non-profitable way for buisnesses... no more comments on that. :P

I myself don't plan on owning any more desktops... they are big and non-mobile. I like my DTR Notebook very much and with chips going for better power effeciency, new wireless technologies, better batteries, etc... I can see desktops not so much dissapearing, but definitly seeing alot less of them the way we see them now. SFF and other types, while servers will exist as they do now, but probably in blades? Dunno much about servers, but personal computers are definitly going smaller and more mobile.

My ideal computer will last 10+ hours on battery, recharges in minutes, runs as fast as a desktop, wireless mouse, wireless everything... all of which is possible with current technologies if you've been reading the news posts from this site alone.

[airbornflght]

Airborn, fill me in. I'm not familliar with this. What do you think of these guys?
http://atomchip.com/_wsn/page4.html

Im no engineer, but I have done some reading that is really a bunch of hypothesis, but interesting none the less, I really dont understand it all, but then again, I really dont understand current processors. About all I know about current processors is that they have a lot of transistors in them connected in stages I guess.

With electrical transistors, you are not only limited by how fast the signal can me created and recieved (mhz) but also the actual bandwidth of the material.

With optical, the boundary doesnt really exist, or more so that it exists, but the ceiling is so high that we would only be limited by how fast the signal can be generated and received. That is like optical phonelines, I think it is a couple thousand lines that they can squeeze into one little fiber optic cable. amazing to me. I think that we currently under estimate something as basic and simple as light, I think there is more to it that just light.

We can manipulate a lot of things, bear with me for a second while I deviate from the path. sound waves can be bent with curved surfaces, it can be absorbed and such. What if you could bend light, after all, the way that the eye sees is light reflecting off of objects, so what if you could pull that light in front of you so that you were'invisible' possible? Im not one say no, after all, we figured out how to clone people. And many other inventions. back to optical processing, I think it is plausible, but I think that it will be a different kind of platform. Im really jib jabbering on again, but I like to think about the future, and what is possible and I have meant some interesting people. My grand dad is one of them. He has been working with computers since they were the size of a room, and debugging a computer meant getting the 6 legged suckers out;D. I have had the oportunity to live in a great time imo.

In a technological sense, my first computer was a Win 3.1 system. it was reall a pos, then win 95, then 2000, then xp. The ammount of change in the last 15 years is phenominal, how far we have came. What the computer is capable of, not to mention the internet, how much it and the community has evolved. Culturally, we have gone through a mighty big change, in the way that we interact with each other.

Here I am a 17 year old young man in Enid, Oklahoma. And from the desk of my tiny room at 12 in the morning my time, I feel that I know many of you, though I have not met any of you physically.




Did I ramble enough? I have to get busy, I have just been inspired.

[Leonardo]

Did I ramble enough? I have to get busy, I have just been inspired. It was sort of on topic, in a philosophical...rambling manner. But I read your whole post and enjoyed it. :)

[bothered]

Ha, this is all assuming the human race will still be around in ten years.:hiding:

[deicist]

Actually, at the business, that's the old model! That's what my computer environment was in the early 90's - monitors and keyboards (no mice) all connected to an IBM 3B2 "mini computer" (monster) running command line Unix 2.0. It was "dumb terminals" connected to a host computer.

We use a similar, although more sophisticated system at work now. Running Citrix metaframe clients on all the old PCs we had from before the switch, some dumb terminals dotted around as we buy new machines all connected to a server farm consisting of 7 Dell Poweredge Servers. It works quite well, even over WAN connections, and makes it much easier for IT (us) to enforce the company IT policy :)

[RWB]

We use a similar, although more sophisticated system at work now. Running Citrix metaframe clients on all the old PCs we had from before the switch, some dumb terminals dotted around as we buy new machines all connected to a server farm consisting of 7 Dell Poweredge Servers. It works quite well, even over WAN connections, and makes it much easier for IT (us) to enforce the company IT policy :)

Yes.... rule them....
RULE THEM ALL WITH THE IRON FIST!!!

[deicist]

:D

The thing most users don't even think about is that the company is responsible for anything they do with their PCs. IT policies are there to protect the company, not so we can get off on some little power trip. That's just a bonus :D

[RWB]

:D

The thing most users don't even think about is that the company is responsible for anything they do with their PCs. IT policies are there to protect the company, not so we can get off on some little power trip. That's just a bonus :D

Oh yeah I could not agree more, from when I was the lowly tech that supported 80+ computers randomly displaced around Houston. I was working on getting it all setup so I could CONTROL IT ALL. Then I was laid off... lol

Those girls knew how to screw up a system and with TEH QUIKNESSSS!

[deicist]

Yup, my job would be so much easier if I didn't have to cope with users :(

[RWB]

Yup, my job would be so much easier if I didn't have to cope with users :(

Me too, but then I would be out of a job being help desk trash :nudge:

[deicist]

Me too, but then I would be out of a job being help desk trash :nudge:

How could you be help desk with no users? The obvious answer for all IT related problems is kill the users. mwahahahaHAHA!!.

[CB]

The terminal systems you guys are talking about are corporate/enterprise styles terminal systems, which are all in one building, and controled by one person or organizational entity.

I'm talking about a system that would be sort of like a universal terminal system. Here's how the tech would progress:

The internet can do lots of things. Many different applications and types of media can be transmitted over the internet, and streaming apps and media is becoming more efficient.

Soon, connections will be fast and reliable enough that people will stop downloading media, they will simply leave it where it is on the internet, and 'stream' the information everytime they need it. Eventually this will be possible with everything, even high-end games, and 3D applications.

The big companies will sieze on this as a way to control their content. :aol: The gurus will resist, but soon after that, all of your software, including your operating system will be obtained, activated, and stored remotely and need to be streamed to your system. No one will need their removable drives, making optical drives an obsolete luxury (just as floppy drives have become, due to USB storage)

Eventually, people wont even be using their fixed drives for anything other than a few family pictures, since even their personal storage space (akin to using Gmail as an extra HDD) will be handled remotely, also. :-/

The gurus will think it crazy at first, but we'll start to see the first home PCs created and sold with no fixed disk even installed, and the ones that a few people do use will be smaller even than the ones most people use today, because they simply wont need all that space. :ninja:

Around the same time, home PCs will stop needing their own processor. The home PC will have been reduced to a small box that houses some RAM and a GPU. Even that GPU may eventually become obsolete, as the pipeline to the internet becomes fast and wide enough, that even the graphics processing can be handled before the information gets to the the individual system. :nudge:


At what point to we stop calling that a PC, and start calling it a terminal?


BTW: This is all my own ridiculous postulating. I'm not sure if there are any experts who back me up :)

[deicist]

The terminal systems you guys are talking about are corporate/enterprise styles terminal systems, which are all in one building, and controled by one person or organizational entity.

Nope, the system I work with has clients in 30 different offices nationwide. And although the intent is different than the system you're postulating (business use vs personal use) the technology used would be pretty much the same. I raised the subject of citrix etc..purely because it's a good indication of how far thin-client systems have come since the command line terminal days.

[GHoosdum]

I'm talking about a system that would be sort of like a universal terminal system. Here's how the tech would progress...
At what point to we stop calling that a PC, and start calling it a terminal?


Tiny bands of renegades will store their decade-old fully capable PCs in the closet, hoping to never be caught by the UNCEPF (United Nations Computer Enforcement Police Force) - having a standalone PC is an offense punishable with ten years in Federal PMITA prison and a frontal lobotomy.

A black market in SATA hard drives will open up - 500GB will sell for a troy ounce of gold. A resistance movement will form, led by Linux users, in an attempt to free the PC from the chains of terminal tyranny. The resistance will be brutally crushed by UNCEPF Special Forces, and we will all be killed. Resistance is futile.

[tmh88]

sorry, cant use a plasma with a pc afaik, cause last time I checked plasmas will suffer from burn in. They may have found a work around, but I dont think so. I'd just rather have a high quality lcd, as the display quality is amazing on the big high res models.

yea but have you noticed how the biggest LCD's they make stop around 40". Not that its not massive already, but they just arent clear or as good when they go higher.

[CB]

'decade-old fully capable PC' is an oxymoron... :P

[deicist]

'decade-old fully capable PC' is an oxymoron... :P

I think the point he was making was that if PCs go down the way of terminals they'll become less capable in pure performance terms as everything will be streamed to them. So decades old PCs in that context would be more powerful than the terminal systems.

[airbornflght]

It was sort of on topic, in a philosophical...rambling manner. But I read your whole post and enjoyed it. :)


yeh, now that i read it, I jumped all over the spectrum ;D

[GHoosdum]

I think the point he was making was that if PCs go down the way of terminals they'll become less capable in pure performance terms as everything will be streamed to them. So decades old PCs in that context would be more powerful than the terminal systems.

My point exactly! :thumbsup:

[Keebler]

My point exactly! :thumbsup:
Having seen a Citrix demonstration (and my college is integrating Terminal Services in some areas for the fall) I can say that it actually drastically increases the performance of systems we bought four or more years ago. We're using it to extend the life of our systems (probaby tripling their lifespan at least) as thin clients while giving them an "upgrade". :)

[airbornflght]

My pc's will never go down for terminals..Its just the man trying to take us down and bind us with chains!!

I'll be escorted into prison and a murderer will ask me what I did, I'll say "I was running slackware, on my pc", and that murderer will run with his tail between his legs. Because 3 days later, I'll hack into the prisons mainframe, open all cell doors and electronically controlled gates, and be free again.

[GHoosdum]

Having seen a Citrix demonstration (and my college is integrating Terminal Services in some areas for the fall) I can say that it actually drastically increases the performance of systems we bought four or more years ago. We're using it to extend the life of our systems (probaby tripling their lifespan at least) as thin clients while giving them an "upgrade". :)

I wish that my company utilized whatever techniques you have discovered for making Citrix perform reasonably well. Our "associates" in India are only capable of utilizing the applications that I write at about 50% of the capacity of a US-based employee running on an XP machine joined to the Domain. (It's a good thing we pay them so poorly. :crazy: )

[V|P]

My pc's will never go down for terminals..Its just the man trying to take us down and bind us with chains!!

I'll be escorted into prison and a murderer will ask me what I did, I'll say "I was running slackware, on my pc", and that murderer will run with his tail between his legs. Because 3 days later, I'll hack into the prisons mainframe, open all cell doors and electronically controlled gates, and be free again.
Having a good day are we? :hair:
I read that quantum computing only takes a few atoms to be over a hundred times faster than today's procs.

[WuGgaRoO]

i love this debate...who would have thought everyone would have thought this would have become this spirited
i personally feel that people like to have something physical right in front of them,...the whole terminal thing will never work out because there will be no customization available and people love doing that...and persoanlly i LOVE server towers...i feel so powerful lol

[airbornflght]

Having a good day are we?


Quite the one:vimp:

[Leonardo]

I just finished watching Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy, and the last few threads and that movie are running together in my head now! :eek: :eek: :eek:

dumb terminals - computer police - THE FRIGGING ANSWER IS 42! YESSSS!!!:Pwned: :Pwned:

[deicist]

Having seen a Citrix demonstration (and my college is integrating Terminal Services in some areas for the fall) I can say that it actually drastically increases the performance of systems we bought four or more years ago. We're using it to extend the life of our systems (probaby tripling their lifespan at least) as thin clients while giving them an "upgrade". :)

Do a google for Thinstation. It's a linux distro that boots from CD and turns a PC into a thin client. I've found that it offers better performance on low spec machines than the Citrix client running on a windows box. It can be a pain to set up, but once you have it working it's fantastic.

[Keebler]

Do a google for Thinstation. It's a linux distro that boots from CD and turns a PC into a thin client. I've found that it offers better performance on low spec machines than the Citrix client running on a windows box. It can be a pain to set up, but once you have it working it's fantastic.
Thanks mate, I had a look and passed it along to our network services folk. :cheers:

[drasnor]

I can see computers moving to a distributed model overall but what I can't see is who would control it and how the customer would pay for it. Would it be a subscription like your cell phone where you pay by the minute or cable TV where you get infinite access to some basic features and have to shell out more for premium content or capabilities? Myself, I wouldn't pay for anything less than unlimited everything though as a Linux user I'm not ready to pay for software.

The Linux resistance movement is a nice thought but neglects that Linux essentially requires a network to operate. Open source survives based on communication between developers (svn and cvs) and delivery from developers to users and maintainers. Bottom line is nothing works without a free Internet.

Here's a hardware thought for you: down the hall in intelligent materials they're working on sandwiching semiconductor material between structural materials and "growing" logic circuits inside through self-assembling nanostructures. The idea is that aircraft will have progressively more relaxed stability and there will be a need for a lot of decentralized computer power for translating the pilot's intentions into the aircraft's movements. I don't know how this compares to the lithographic techniques used for making conventional processors, but in 15-20 years expect to see computers made from decentralized self-healing neural nets.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: when the computer science guys achieve A.I. everything will change.

-drasnor :fold:

[airbornflght]

I can see computers moving to a distributed model overall but what I can't see is who would control it and how the customer would pay for it. Would it be a subscription like your cell phone where you pay by the minute or cable TV where you get infinite access to some basic features and have to shell out more for premium content or capabilities? Myself, I wouldn't pay for anything less than unlimited everything though as a Linux user I'm not ready to pay for software.

The Linux resistance movement is a nice thought but neglects that Linux essentially requires a network to operate. Open source survives based on communication between developers (svn and cvs) and delivery from developers to users and maintainers. Bottom line is nothing works without a free Internet.

Here's a hardware thought for you: down the hall in intelligent materials they're working on sandwiching semiconductor material between structural materials and "growing" logic circuits inside through self-assembling nanostructures. The idea is that aircraft will have progressively more relaxed stability and there will be a need for a lot of decentralized computer power for translating the pilot's intentions into the aircraft's movements. I don't know how this compares to the lithographic techniques used for making conventional processors, but in 15-20 years expect to see computers made from decentralized self-healing neural nets.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: when the computer science guys achieve A.I. everything will change.

-drasnor :fold:

Probably in more bad ways than good, because as soon as the government/certain agencies learn how to harness it and use it for their own motive, we will all be screwed.:aol: