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Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season 2017 edition

2

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  • Straight_ManStraight_Man Geeky, in my own way Punta Gorda, FL Icrontian
    edited 8 Sep

    Good luck, Joe. Assuming the house makes it through Irma, buy some 1/2 inch thick plywood before Jose arrives if it does, and store it in the garage. Then you will not have to play "can I find some in time" game. Better yet, get some metal hurricane shutters and tracks and screw them to each other and the house when the next 4-5 storms hit. Then, they might be too warped to work if the hurricanes are cat 5.

    During hurricane Charlie, we had hurricane shutters across where the lanai and pool area met. Then for other slider doorwall, we had shutters across it also, end shutters overlapped and screwed down, center shutters overlapped one to next one. The shutters were the corrugated kind. The rest of the house had impact glass, and damaged one of those got replaced under warranty or by insurance.

    Charlie was inland a Cat 3 even for gusts, but where my house was (mile from Gulf inland) he was barely a Cat 4 for gusts. We had to claim, and got, $60,000 claim (mostly complete roof as tiles no longer were available that were on roof and complete screened lanai which had to be engineered to be resistant to 130 mile and hour winds) for damages to a 20-year old house that was $350,000 or more market value after Charlie. The price the realtor got from buyers for that house three months ago was north of $370,000. After closing and realtor commission we got about $350,000.

  • ZanthianZanthian Mitey Worrier Milford, OH Icrontian

    This is looking bad.

    LincGHoosdumUPSLynxGargoyle
  • GHoosdumGHoosdum Icrontian
    edited 8 Sep

    Here are some woodworking plans for you, Joe.

    BlueTattoo
  • ThraxThrax Professional Shill, Watch Slut, Mumble Hivemind Drone Austin, TX Icrontian
  • ZanthianZanthian Mitey Worrier Milford, OH Icrontian

    DontCallMeKelsoRyderaspieRommelBuddyJ
  • UPSLynxUPSLynx Top EA shill, The Dean of Computer Graphics Redwood City, CA Icrontian

    If you're in Florida, there are some really good points of advice and insight on the /r/tropicalweather subreddit. Particularly, this thread. Here's an important tidbit:

    Miami verbatim will see 155+MPH sustained winds, 138mph near Tampa. Hurricane winds are likely to be felt as far inland as Northern Orlando (this scale is in KTS, not MPH). Rains of 10"-20" from SW FL through the heart of the state are anticipated, with rates that can overwhelm streams, lakes, swamps and any other tributaries.

    We're close enough that models are becoming very accurate. This storm is the real deal, and I urge everyone to take the utmost precautions if you intend to ride it out.

    Also, keep an eye on the live threads for updates and recommendations. Please be safe everyone.

    MiracleManS
  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    We are now anticipating a direct hit here in the Big Bend/Forgotten Coast region, shit is getting real, real fast.

    Most of the recent models have it entering between Tampa and Naples on the west coast before swinging further west across Apalachee Bay and coming over or near Tallahassee.

    I am going down to Carrabelle early Sunday morning to help my parents evacuate, my brother is going down tomorrow to help them secure the property since my dad had hernia surgery two weeks ago and is under doctors orders to not lift in excess of 10 lb or do any physical activity.

    I will be leaving my house either late Sunday night or early Monday morning (before 8 AM) to go to the north side of town where my brother lives. We are probably going to have to cut our way out of the neighborhood after the storm.

    As a worst case scenario, several models have it making a direct hit around Ochlockonee Bay/St. Marks, which sit directly south of Tallahassee about 35 miles, WITHOUT making a previous landfall. This would make it a cat 3-5 storm. To put in perspective how bad this would be: the town of St. Marks would be under 20-35 feet of water; all of Wakulla, most of Jefferson and Taylor, and about 50% of Franklin Counties would be completely submerged. The water would reach 10-20 miles inland, further up the river valleys, into the southern part of Leon County (home to Tallahassee, FSU, and most of the State of Florida government). Thankfully these are sparsely populated counties, but the scale of devastation would dwarf Andrew, Katrina or Harvey.

    I really hope those models are wrong.

  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    Also already have intermittent issues with internet, probably as a result of the Miami hub being evacuated.

  • Straight_ManStraight_Man Geeky, in my own way Punta Gorda, FL Icrontian

    Which provider's hub?

  • CrazyJoeCrazyJoe Winter Springs, FL Icrontian

    Stay safe up there. The continued westward track of the storm is good for Miami, not so good for the keys or for you guys. Hopefully it dies down before then.

  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    My parents are being stubborn about leaving their dream home; this is going to be a real pain in the ass to get them out of there.

  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    See the 2 PM "H"? That is home.

    Crap.

    Will update throughout the day and into the night as conditions deteriorate. Will post as long as able.

  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    It looks like the worst case scenario for my area is not going to happen. We are still likely to see hurricane force winds here in Tallahassee, but it should only be cat 1 vs the high cat 2/low cat 3 that the euro model was predicting up until a few hours ago.

    A bit breezy here, steady 15 kts out of the NE with some light rain. Conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly around 9 PM when the first of the main feeder bands start coming arriving in our area.

    I may or may not have plans to shoot fireworks into the hurricane tonight...

  • UPSLynxUPSLynx Top EA shill, The Dean of Computer Graphics Redwood City, CA Icrontian

    @pigflipper said:
    I may or may not have plans to shoot fireworks into the hurricane tonight...

    Relevant:

    (Says a lot about Flordia, I suppose)

    GHoosdumGargoyle
  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    Ain't gonna stop me from shootin bottle rockets at the bitch (I can't legally discharge my gun inside city limits)

  • CrazyJoeCrazyJoe Winter Springs, FL Icrontian


    Hmmm. Do I listen to the NWS or Pokemon?

    UPSLynxGHoosdumGargoyleprimesuspect
  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    Still not much here, but I know that @CrazyJoe is getting hit pretty decently: my sister lives in his area and she just lost power.

    Tampa and St. Pete are getting walloped pretty good right now with the real danger coming after the eye passes in the form of a massive storm surge. I am afraid that Keaton Beach, Dekle Beach, Steinhatchee and Cedar Key are going to be completely underwater right as they were finally starting to recover from Hermine last year.

    Also, I might've started on the vodka. And the beer. And I still have power so I made steak sammiches.

    I don't expect sobriety or power to last much longer.

    Gargoyle
  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    CrazyJoeUPSLynxGargoyle
  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    BuddyJ
  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian
    edited 11 Sep

    Apparently a car dealership here in town pulled the dick move of the year:

    http://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2017/09/10/napleton-infiniti-ordered-remove-vehicles-fsu-garages/652321001/

    Dealership cars are STILL there as of 23:16 EDT

  • CrazyJoeCrazyJoe Winter Springs, FL Icrontian

    Wow, that is a dick move. We're still holding down the fort. We lost power about 10PM but so far just alot of rain and some pretty strong gusts. The worst won't be here until about 2AM though.

  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    I never cut myself at work and I use big ass, sharp as shit chef knives all day.

    I cut myself slicing a lime with a chef knife. Figures.

  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    Wind is at a steady 25 knots now with gusts higher. Starting to hear things being blown around. Power has flickered a couple of times over the past hour, but nothing more than a bad t-storm would cause.

  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    Probably my last update until morning:

    Power continues to flicker, but it is starting to look like we may not see sustained hurricane force winds here in Tallahassee. My parents on the coast southwest of here will probably see a couple hours of hurricane force winds coming across the water from the Cedar Key area.

    This town has so many trees, they are everywhere and it makes the city beautiful, yet in an event such as a tropical system, it becomes a serious hazard. While we probably won't see hurricane winds, we will still have 8-10 hours of 50+ mph winds. It has rained all goddamn summer, the ground is saturated and this system is dumping even more rain by the hour. Trees are going to come down. They will come down on cars, houses and the electric grid. If last year is anything to go by, we will have massive (90%+) power outages by noon tomorrow and with the number of canopy roads, getting work crews out to more distant locations is going to take time.

    I know I am going to lose power sometime in the next few hours, no idea for how long, but I am pretty lucky in where I live: I am close to downtown and on the same grid as the FSU College of Law and the Leon County Civic Center. I was only without power for ~36 hours last year while most of my family, friends and coworkers were without power for 3-10 days.

    As I typed that last paragraph, I could hear the wind over the sound my main rig and music for the first time. Good thing we took down the rotted out water oak next to the house a few months ago, or else I might be waking up to a 120' tall, 4' diameter tree ripping off the front part of the house and that would make it a royal pain to get the girls out (the current tenants upstairs are seniors at FSU and members of the sorority next door).

    I will take pics/vid of any shenanigans that may take place as a result of vodka and beer.

    Also don't forget to pray/send good thoughts to those southeast of me who got hammered by this storm today; as bad as it will be here, they will be weeks or months until any return to something resembling normal.

  • CrazyJoeCrazyJoe Winter Springs, FL Icrontian
    edited 11 Sep

    We're right in the middle of it right now. The wind is howling something fierce. Here's a radar picture and where I am. There is no radar for the Southern half of the storm because they were saying that the storm took out the radar stations in Key West and Miami. I was able to sleep about an hour, but the winds woke me up.

  • CrazyJoeCrazyJoe Winter Springs, FL Icrontian

    Here's my house as of this morning btw. I only had enough plywood to cover the big skylight window in our Master Bedroom you see on the left but I had just replaced part of my fence in the back yard so I had several old fence panels to use for the other widows.

    GHoosdumGnomeQueendrasnorChooch
  • GargoyleGargoyle Purveyor of Lincoln Nightmares Illinois Icrontian

    Looks like Fortress Joe held up!

  • pigflipperpigflipper The Forgotten Coast Icrontian

    Nice work Joe!

    I am fine here in Tallahassee, we never saw much of the storm except a few hours of 50 mph winds and a lot of rain. I never lost power, though most of town was out at one point or another. Good portion of my friends are without power as well as most of my family. My sister in the Orlando area is fine, they had a tree land on part of the house, but she said there doesn't appear to be major damage. My parents down on the coast are fine, just going to be without power for a few days as a tree took at a pole on their street.

    I think its time to fire up the grill.

    GnomeQueenLincBobbyDigiGargoyle
  • CrazyJoeCrazyJoe Winter Springs, FL Icrontian

    We're ok. No major damage, just a few fence panels down. Lots of trees down in the area. We have been without power since 10PM last night. It's getting hot in here, so you know how the song goes...

    GnomeQueenBobbyDigiGargoyleGHoosdum
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