Dvorak Says Linux, Mac Both Doomed

gtghmgtghm New
edited July 2003 in Science & Tech
An interesting thought...

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,4149,1191830,00.asp

If you combine the element of open source with Microsoft dominance stifling innovation, you absolutely have to conclude there will be no more killer apps, and thus nothing creating the kind of increased demand that would cause a tipping point for either the Mac or Linux. They are both doomed. While they exist as platforms, they will do nothing more than provide new ideas for Microsoft to implement.

Comments

  • GHoosdumGHoosdum Icrontian
    edited July 2003
    That definitely provides food for thought, and it's a difficult viewpoint to counter... but Linux is gaining market share. I don't think it will be a lion's share of the market until Microsoft finds a way to actually get their copy protection to be unbeatable... then poor college students will flock to Linux in droves! ;)
  • gtghmgtghm New
    edited July 2003
    GHoosdum said
    That definitely provides food for thought, and it's a difficult viewpoint to counter... but Linux is gaining market share. I don't think it will be a lion's share of the market until Microsoft finds a way to actually get their copy protection to be unbeatable... then poor college students will flock to Linux in droves! ;)

    That maybe the "tipping point" that would start a move that direction.
    I think that the article fails to point out that the oppisite is also true for MS. Even though MS is seeming engrained in everything the GUIs that are now available for Lunix and mac show that they can all be made to work simular to MS's products.
    If MS does go all the way with its copy protection plans and some of their other grand plans I think that people would be looking to a platforum that will run everything that runs windows and yet isn't as intrusive....

    Mac would be much further along except that Steve Jobs is as bad if not worse than Bill.
    Ok so you make all maunfactures of your parts stick to your standards, but to release OSX then less than 6 months later release Jaguar and charge full price for the upgrade is crap. And the fact that Jaguar didn't include the same driver support and stuff so it rendered things like printers useless with jaguar that worked with OSX10... At least Bill and most venders support the last 2 or 3 OS's released...
    How can they ever get above niche...?

    I'm not all that familuar with Lunix so I won't comment to that but there must be something there too...

    "g"
  • EMTEMT Seattle, WA Icrontian
    edited July 2003
    Damn, when I read the title I thought for a sec it'd be something about the real Dvorak (the keyboard layout).

    Interesting point though.
  • a2jfreaka2jfreak Houston, TX Member
    edited July 2003
    I was thinking about the keyboard guy too.
    EMT said
    Damn, when I read the title I thought for a sec it'd be something about the real Dvorak (the keyboard layout).

    Interesting point though.
  • TemplarTemplar You first.
    edited July 2003
    Linux isn't just going to fall off the face of the planet. People do use it. I just can't imagine a webserver with blue skys and rolling green hills.
  • TobinTobin Philadelphia, PA
    edited July 2003
    I have to admit I became a Dvorak (the person) fan by watching "Silicon Spin" on ZDTV/TechTV. Then they had to go and cancel that show :hrm:
  • kanezfankanezfan sunny south florida Icrontian
    edited July 2003
    every year, someone brings up another reason why linux and/or mac is goin to die, and they never go away. this is more of the same BS.
  • TemplarTemplar You first.
    edited July 2003
    kanezfan said
    every year, someone brings up another reason why linux and/or mac is goin to die, and they never go away. this is more of the same BS.

    Yeah. These doomsayers don't even get any money off of their predictions, what's their motivation? (well, I assume Dvorak does other things at TechTV besides write articles.)
  • MERRICKMERRICK In the studio or on a stage
    edited July 2003
    MS Copy protection? Unless they burn the O/S into a ROM chip that is only compatable with...

    I can't see how they'll ever beat the hackers. Even if each CD is uniquely burned with a personal Serial etc. one copy gets on the web...

    Linux? I've been watching Linux over my friends shoulder for about six years now. He must have every version Red Hat, Mandrake, Suse, he has this "old" Linux stuff that I never even heard of (not that I'm savy to things Linux). The one thing a stunted Win98 guy like me can see however, is the evolution of Linux moving towards an easier interface for the average PC user. I'm seeing more Linux references in thes "Windows" forums than ever. Of course Linux will grow but that's taking into consideration that the population of earth is growing.

    IMHO I think doomsaying Linux is for effect to get attention and is better served selling issues of the National Enquierer or The Sun. Will Linux ever go head to head with M$? that depends on what time frame and socio-politcal future you see for the world. Okay a bit H.G. Wells but every monopoly eventually falls.
  • a2jfreaka2jfreak Houston, TX Member
    edited July 2003
    No no no no no! You have it all wrong!

    BSD is dying!
    kanezfan said
    every year, someone brings up another reason why linux and/or mac is goin to die, and they never go away. this is more of the same BS.
  • SlickSlick Upstate New York
    edited July 2003
    I think mac will fall, not linux. As its stands now linux is gaining more users, as for mac, well I don't keep up with mac. The key difference though is, you have to pay for macs, and you dont have to pay for linux. As long as linux is free and there are still people working on it, I don't see how it could fail.
  • gtghmgtghm New
    edited July 2003
    Slick said
    I think mac will fall, not linux. As its stands now linux is gaining more users, as for mac, well I don't keep up with mac. The key difference though is, you have to pay for macs, and you dont have to pay for linux. As long as linux is free and there are still people working on it, I don't see how it could fail.


    I don't think that the article really talks about the OS acutally failing in such a way that it will disapear but more in the aspect of ever becomming a true MS OS competitor.
    Dvorak says in the article that he thinks that there will always be a niche market for both Mac and Lunix but nothing more.
    From what I have read I can see that Lunix is slowly building for now with the help of programs like the one that walmart offeres cheap machines with Lindows on them to help the cause.

    I think in the sence of truly competing with MS for the OS market I think that he has a real point.

    Most computer users, exculde most of us geeks and borderline geeks, don't want to configure anything.

    To them its not the computer but what the computer can do for them. They don't want to build the hammer they just want to weild it. And from my "Limited" knowledge of Lunix and other OS's like that, there is a bit more involved than just clicking and going.

    Now, IMHO, if Lunix were to make a comitment to optimizing the OS for use with say the Opertron and 64bit and you could get the gamers and a few other software companies onboard to be exclusive only to Lunix then I think that we might see a shift to Lunix boxes if there were a demand for the games of that software.
    But Dvorak also makes the point that the basic idea of Lunix and the open source community is for open sharing of code, which is a problem if you were going to try and create a software that ran optimaly and exclusively on Lunix boxes.
    It is a conflict of interests for the open source community to create code that will only run 64bit processor programs optimaly and exclusively thus again the reason that Lunix, Red Hat, and BSD will never challenge MS for the OS market share.
    And from a business point that means that those OS's would be "failures".

    Yes they will always be around, I think that we will see ebbs and flows of users along the way but ultimately if you think about it none of the OS's mentioned give you any history data to indicarte that they would ever be able to challenge MS.

    In the end I agree with Dvorak that in order to challenge MS in the OS market the challenger will have to come up with not only an equaly brainless OS but also be able to offer exclusive programs that the whole world wants to use that will not run on MS and that MS can't configure for MS OS use.

    If it wasn't for Final Cut Pro Mac would have been dead (again dead meaning bearly a niche group of users, but there would still be a few)

    MHO,
    "g"
  • GHoosdumGHoosdum Icrontian
    edited July 2003
    However, Linux is becoming more and more of a plug-and-play type OS, particularly the Redhat, Suse, and Mandrake variants... soon it will be just as easy to use for the average-Joe-moron as Windows is, and still be free or cheap...
  • SlickSlick Upstate New York
    edited July 2003
    A good point there. I have never used lindows but I hear that it is good for newbs. I saw a review and I guess they got a lot of programs and stuff running without ever going to the command line, just pointing and clicking. I also this linux OS... http://www.lycoris.com/ to me it looks exactly like windows XP only running on a linux kernel.
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