Kevin Dent: 10 reasons why Ouya will fail

Brian Ambrozy 12 Jul, 2012 at 5:02pm ET Article published in Gaming

This article wins the "use stock art that makes no sense" prize for today

Games industry analyst Kevin Dent used Twitter today to post his 10 reasons why the Ouya will fail.

His reasons:

1. The cost price of the Tegra 3 chip set is $25 if they got it at cost and the rest of the mats and manufacturing for free= 160K units
2. Lack of developer buy in: there are no developers that JUST focus on Android because it does not monetize well.
3. Open: they make rooting super easy which means piracy will be super easy.
4. Lack of experience in the VG space
5. Content drives device sales. Today they have zero content, costs to port an existing title? 100k+
6. Who wants to buy a device with 8GB of space, 1GB of ram and a low end chipset?
7. I literally don’t know a single person that wants to play a mobile game on a 60″ screen
8. Also capital related: as soon as they get the kickstarter money they have to pay the IRS as kickstarter money is booked as income
9. They have zero distribution into retail, do you think Amazon will be promoting this?
10. 3DO

Now obviously there’s some snark and lots of opinion in there, but he does bring up some valid talking points. Ouya was recently overfunded to the tune of $3 million on Kickstarter (it’s currently at $4.16m at the time of writing)… and one has to ask: what the heck is going on? Is this is Kickstarter bubble we’re in? Are people nuts? Giving $4 million to a product concept that doesn’t actually exist? An Android console?

Ben Kuchera from Penny Arcade report also brings up some valid points. He goes so far as to recommend that you should pull your money out until something… tangible materializes.

Comments

12 Jul 2012 ~ 5:19pm Tushon That ginger schoolgirl is eating my insides ... so ... slowly

/slinks off into "unrelated comment" territory.
12 Jul 2012 ~ 5:24pm UPSLynx I agree with most of Kevin's assessments. The whole 'play mobile games on a big screen' sell does nothing for me. It has minecraft? Great, so do I.

I love the idea of this being open, but I'm not sure otherwise why the kickstarter took off so well. I see nothing compelling about it yet that is deserving of my money.

I think the biggest point to make here is what you mentioned in the 2nd to last paragraph. We are in a Kickstarter bubble. Kickstarter is still a new thing, and everyone still thinks they can do whatever they want with it. Just look at Penny Arcade. Fans are eating this stuff up, and almost every person donating is encouraging some sort of bad behavior - and I don't just mean PA, I mean with most Kickstarters.

Here's the thing - we have yet to reach a point where end products materialize as a result of the majority of Kickstarter efforts. We're still only in the honeymoon stage. Take for instance the card game Katalyka. Over Seven grand was donated by 85 backers to make this game a reality. A year later there is no game, and the author is talking about her inability to finish because "the SUN is speaking to her in her head, and telling her to not release the game". I'm not making this up. The backers are pissed and yelling in the comments, but in the end they can't do anything. Backing a kickstarter does not guarantee a return service. This is probably the first of many such cases.

The fact that Ouya has four million in the bank without nothing but a thin promise is staggering. If anything, a project of this magnitude can and should serve as the litmus test for the legitimacy of Kickstarter as a service that dishes out a return product, and I think it's going to burn.
12 Jul 2012 ~ 5:47pm Thrax I have no logical reasons or market analysis, just gut instinct, and my gut instinct tells me that this is going to be a wildly overhyped failure.
12 Jul 2012 ~ 6:18pm Sp00nman While we (Division-G) did fund it - to get a unit and couple controllers - I also believe it will fail. At least we'll have something else to put in our trophy case.
12 Jul 2012 ~ 9:26pm Tim Let's give it some time, shall we?
12 Jul 2012 ~ 11:19pm QuadyTheTurnip From what I think and what I've heard from friends is more that it'll make an excellent, cheap TV Box for playing video files on. That's at least why I'm interested the Ouya, as it being open and Android based makes it extremely unlikely to not get at least one hunk of software for playing video files on a TV through it.

Secondly, (and this is more personal crazy speculation), I feel that Android is headed the route of full-fledged computer OS, sort of in a reverse Microsoft mode (where Windows 8 is computers reaching to the tablet/smartphone, Android seems to be reaching away from smartphones more to the computer to me), and this is just the first major example of this. Though again, this paragraph is just crazy personal speculation.
13 Jul 2012 ~ 12:28am ForkInSocket I think many are missing the point of the Ouya. I don't think of it as a traditional console; more of an app device than a potential PS3/360 competitor.

There's a market there, I think. I can think of quite a few apps I'd like to play with a controller in front of the tube.

Still, it's really hard to get excited about that Tegra 3. Maybe the 2nd or 3rd iteration of the hardware will be worth considering.
13 Jul 2012 ~ 1:20am Dallin Some good points and some not so good:

1. Capital is no longer an issue, at least to meet the initial demand. I guarantee this Kickstarter made a whole lot of VC's take notice. They have all the capital they need.
2. I think you missed the point of the system. The developers they are looking to buy in are the guys in their garages and small indie groups. I'm sure they would love to get big developers too, but it doesn't need them to be successful. Minecraft is the perfect example. All they need is a few killer indie games made for it and for only $99, they'll get sales. The developers they need to buy in are likely the same people that invested in the Kickstarter project.
3. Piracy is a serious concern and this is a very legitimate point. I wonder how they will combat this.
4. We don't really know who is involved at this point, so this statement is absolute conjecture. The founder, however, seems to have plenty of experience in the industry.
5. See point #2
6. This is my biggest worry and a very legitimate point. I think no one realizes the hardware limitations and soon after getting it and realizing that everything is a simple indie game, they'll lose interest after a month and return to their xboxs.
7. Apparently a record setting amount of people on Kickstarter do. You should never look at your close circle of friends to determine the validity of a product. That's a serious business mistake.
8. See point #1
9. This is another serious issue and a very legitimate point. Amazon will sell it I'm sure, but not any physical retail outlets. On the other hand, perhaps we're making a mistake in assuming they need the market penetration of MS, Sony and Nintendo to be successful. Maybe they can be plenty successful with a million units with active users and remaining a small company. Some companies stay small and are plenty profitable for their founders.
10. Completely irrelevant (and somewhat ignorant) unless it was put in as mostly humor. The 3DO failed because it was $600 in a market with the SNES. Obviously, since Ouya's market is how cheap can we make games and the system, this is not their issue.

So, out of all those points, I would say there were 3 that were legitimate. At the same time, that may be enough. #9 will stop it from having a huge user base and the other #3 and #6 will probably make its existing user base lose interest soon after launch. I'm still getting one though because I think it's going to be a sexy toy for me to play with!
13 Jul 2012 ~ 2:58am ForkInSocket Good post. A couple of quick thoughts:

1) Porting existing apps to this thing will be extremely easy and cheap.
2) The Ouya merely beats TV manufacturers to the punch of building IOS, Android or Windows 8 into their TVs. That is, if they hurry. Will there still be a market for the system when these Smart TVs start rolling out?
3) You don't need a high-power GPU for puzzle, card, board, strategy, or educational titles, for example, and there are plenty of other games and apps that have similarly low graphics requirements but are wildly popular. This has been a major area of weakness on the traditional consoles because licensing, publishing, patching and marketing small budget games on these systems is cost prohibitive. Ouya could fill that need easily.
4) I don't see anyone getting sick of a steady stream of apps like these. People still buy Myst and play Tetris, Solitaire and Minesweeper....
5) Gamers will still prefer to play larger budget, graphics intensive games on more powerful PC's and consoles first (see the Wii), so the Ouya doesn't really NEED to compete with the latest and greatest GPU. But the Tegra 3, doesn't seem sufficient for the few successful 3D-intensive shooters and action games the system might attract. Especially looking a year or two (more?) into the future when these start to ship.
13 Jul 2012 ~ 3:38am Tom How can a console that can output graphics comparable to an xbox 360 be considered underpowered? I've been playing metroid prime recently and I think that looks amazing! If it can run something that looks like that in HD with slightly updated graphics then I'm happy. Graphics that are purely technology based tend to look dated very quickly, this console is about creating games with good, simple art direction. These kinds of games don't need to look like Crysis 3, the console isn't designed fo that. If I can play indie/iOS type games in 1080p, without using a touchscreen acting as d-pad and buttons, then count me in. If a game is designed for touchscreens then great, but a lot of android and iOS games would benefit from a controller.

The best thing about the console though, is that it is a devkit. When I buy it, I also get a devkit so I can actually start making my own game for it. And I want to make a game, but I personally didn't want to make a touchscreen one, because I prefer touchscreens with a stylus (I got used to it with DS and 3DS). Now I can make my game cheaply, and design in for a controller! What's not to like?
13 Jul 2012 ~ 3:51am ForkInSocket The Tegra 3 is marginally more powerful than a PS2 but less powerful than a Vita.

It's not in the 360's league, and really not even close.
13 Jul 2012 ~ 8:00am Snarkasm Kickstarter is exactly like any other startup funder: don't put in more than you're willing to completely write off if it goes "bankrupt." This means you need to make wise investments. The things I've backed are just starting to deliver, but all had some prototyping in place and readily explained before it was released to Kickstarter.

People need to recognize that it's not a sales site; it's a crowdfunding site. If you're not willing to pretend you never had whatever money you're pledging to the thing, you shouldn't be spending it. Hopefully that's the attitude backers are taking, particularly with things that are just open promises. If you can't bear to part with your $50, wait until it's actually a product that's on sale, and buy it then.
13 Jul 2012 ~ 9:04am 3rr0r333 I just pledged the 99 bugs and the 3 for shipping overseas (Germany) because I really am a fan of that whole concept.
I like it when comanies try to fill up the small free spaces in the market and I believe that there is a market for an open-source, cheap console. And even if it all turns out that they wont' make a console in the end I'm fine with that and I wouldn't regret pledging the money.

In my opinion they did everything right so far. They have a creative, experienced team and a great vision.
Using the already successful and popular Android OS and the Play-store is the best they could've done. Because know we can be quite sure that at least the software component of the product won't make any trouble.
The hardware might seem outdated (especially when you concern that the console won't ship until March 2013) but it's enough for the beginning...also for all the crafty tech freaks out there it's just an opportunity to improve it theirselves. At least I would try. And again: they don't want to compete with those high-end systems like xbox or ps3. And there won't be any benchmark games like crysis or battlefield. As long as there are creative developers making awesome little games the whole product will be a success.
Also I can (and will) use the ouya in my home network. I think there are a lot of opportunities.
And finally the piracy problem. I agree with the writer of german article about the ouya I just red (I'm sorry I don't remember where) who thinks that this will be a very small problem. Piracy in the indie-game market is usually way lower than with the AAA-titles. Also I people would rather buy a really good indie game for 5$ than a 40$ blockbuster they just want to check out.

So I wish the ouya a great success and I believe it will be one!

So long
13 Jul 2012 ~ 10:17am Jacob I think the whole idea of KickStarter is to show off your idea (or concept) and say "Hey, we don't have the money to get this off teh ground, but if you like the idea, pledge money and we can get it made." Then based on the response from people, (which would be the amount pledged) you know whether you have a product that people are interested in or not. An unreleased product with a goal of $3,000 that can't reach it's goal in a few days or weeks....isn't popular enough with it's potential consumers to succeed anyway. With Ouya on the other hand, the goal was $950,000 in 30 days, and they reached $4 million in approximately 48 hours! That shows that the demand is in fact there for the product. At this point it's on the makers of the product. The ability to succeed is practically guaranteed from the consumers end, as long as Ouya's makers can deliver.
13 Jul 2012 ~ 10:37am Casey Kickstarter has the ability to do fund amazing projects. The fact that TERRIBLE ideas like this get funded (or even worse, overfunded) really rustles my jimmies.
13 Jul 2012 ~ 10:46am DarthDiggler To me this system has next to no marketplace. For one anyone can take an Android tablet get an app to hook up a DualShock 3 controller and an HDMI cable to connect to their TV.

Developers like the sound of this now, but not when they are getting ass-raped by piracy which will surely be present in a big way on this console.

The Android marketplace is eating up devs and spitting them out right now.
13 Jul 2012 ~ 1:13pm Moontasir The concept of Ouya is brilliant. You're thinking that Ouya is going to compete with the likes of Sony, M$ and Nintendo, but its not. The idea of Ouya is for it to be an Open Source console. I know that in our current generation, Open Source isn't something people really delve into much. They'd rather use Windows and Macs instead of Linux, but Linux OS's are just that good. If you're thinking about mobile games like angry birds and cut the rope on a 60', I get why you'd be hesitant. But Ouya is thinking about games like Shadowgun, Asphalt, big screen emulators(GB, SNES, N64 emulators on a 60' screen)...Its android, you can do anything you want to it. Developers are getting out of the big game market and going to mobile games because they are easier to make and have less legal hurdles. No licensing or trademarking. A small profit or a large one, in android, they are creating what they want.
13 Jul 2012 ~ 5:09pm usrev2 people are really stupid.

ever hear of home brew? its when you mod a console to make your own games on it, thousands of people do it. if 500 people buy OUYA for home brew and put 5 games on the marketplace for free each that is 2500 games for free.
OUYA isn't for skyrim, or COD, or battlefield, it is for awesome indie games. Minecraft started as an indie game, and i have a huge feeling that if OUYA was out before minecraft that the first port (other then PC/mac) would have been to OUYA and not 360.

Piracy still isn't an issue in the game industry. stop looking at "this torrent was downloaded 50,000 times" and think about it, to be a lost sale it has to be something the person wanted to buy in the first place.

Skyrim pretty much defeats every piracy argument out there. it was leaked on the internet 3 weeks before launch and still sold record copies across all playable platforms.

The only real argument here is about the power of the console. it is at best on par with 360, and with next gen around the corner it might be left in the dust, however, at $100 and possible large indie game market it will probably be a must buy.
13 Jul 2012 ~ 5:55pm primesuspect You call other people stupid for making unsubstantiated arguments, and you do have some relatively good talking points, but then you say something like this:
Piracy still isn't an issue in the game industry
And you turn into just another anonymous keyboard jockey with an uninformed and frankly ignorant opinion. I suppose you are in the game industry and have first hand knowledge of this? Because I have many close friends that work the gamut from large megapublishers to tiny indie devs, and piracy is a very, very heartbreaking and serious concern.
13 Jul 2012 ~ 6:00pm Cliff_Forster An update to Google TV could do it, Logitech manufactures controllers, Google can make the apps web based so the local hardware won't matter much.... This will happen, it just won't be a kickstarter project.
24 Jul 2012 ~ 9:17am Ardavan Hosseini Hi!
Here's something I asked them:

"
Hello OUYA Dev Team!

My name is Ardavan Hosseini, I'm a newbie Security Researcher.
When I first saw your project I was like wow this is really cool. I was about to go for $225 and was about to pay, but this question came to my mind...
How powerful is this device?
I checked the KS page again and saw the Specifications...
I have some questions about this:
1. How is Tegra3 chip and 1GB RAM is going to make Mobile games that we have on our Android and iPhones more fun? Screen? Controller?
2. How long is this device going to live? Even in Mobile devices Tegra3 is going to last for a year because many games are going to come out and they need more power.
3. How is your device going to compete with other consoles? More indie games? Why would someone want to pay for a console to play the games they have on their mobile?
4. Both Microsoft and Sony are working on their Next Generation consoles which means that Devices a lot more powerful are going to come. Why did you go for Tegra3?
5. Don't you think that your device is more Developer/Hacker friendly than Gamer friendly? I mean your device is more like an Indie box. Even if we assume that many Game developers go for your device , still with Tegra3 no one can make Huge games such as Battlefield 3 and Elder Scrolls V : Skyrim.
6. Open also means Piracy is possible. Android can also get infected by Viruses etc. What are you going to do about security of your device and users?

These are my thoughts on your device because I think people got overexcited about it.
I want answers from you if possible.
Why did you go for Developer friendly instead of Gamer friendly?"
24 Jul 2012 ~ 2:24pm primesuspect Definitely good questions. If they answer, please come back and update us!
5 Aug 2012 ~ 4:21am Shibowbow For everyone saying "The Ouya isn't meant to compete in the AAA market", pay attention to how the Kickstarter is selling it...

The description says you'll be able to play AAA games on it. Not only that, but when they did that survey in the first week about what games people would like to see on the Ouya, Skyrim, Battlefield, CoD etc. WERE included as options.

Are you thinking "Well, that just marketing BS"? I agree. And I'll take it a step further: they're being intentionally misleading to even suggest any of those titles could EVER appear on the Ouya. I don't want to use the word "lying", but...

Let's just say, it's one of many reasons a lot of gullible funders are in for a HUGE disappointment.
6 Aug 2012 ~ 6:27pm boasist You can already browse kickstarter, and see other kickstarter campaigns for OUYA games. Some have already failed due to lack of funding. The ones that are running now are pretty insane, 65k, 79k, yet one is at 30k only 6 backers so far.

Now with onlive and FF announced they are coming, what do you all think now?
6 Aug 2012 ~ 6:29pm Thrax I don't think Final Fantasy is as important as the partnership: Square-Enix.

I'm still not utterly convinced of Ouya's success, but I think having a partnership like Squeenix in the pocket substantially increases the profile and viability of the platform.
6 Aug 2012 ~ 6:32pm boasist Yeah, I'd breed a gold chocobo again if that happens.

But as it always goes in console launches, you need that strong launch library. Granted, with kickstarter, they already have about 47k units sold already. But considering those are worldwide numbers, pretty small.
6 Aug 2012 ~ 8:22pm RootWyrm None of the Kickstarters for Ouya games can be said to have failed, because none of them were even started. It was people who saw the money being thrown onto the fire of Ouya, came up with some half-baked idea and tried to get people to give them money. Hell, the only reason Onlive or Squeenix even considered talking to the Ouya people is because of the Kickstarter hype and fluff cycle.

Do you know how many Android "consoles" with comparable specs there are by the Ouya definition? Let's slap some basic requirements on it: Android 4.0, single core 1GHz (see why quad-core is meaningless here), >=512MB DRAM, >=8GB storage (including expansion where available), WiFi b/g/n, HDMI output, USB 2.
Here's one, and here's another and another and another...

Ayup.
7 Aug 2012 ~ 12:45am Thrax And all of the ones that you linked have hardware that are comparable to or worse than the the Nook Color.

For people who don't know what that means in practical terms: slower than shit in a snowstorm.
7 Aug 2012 ~ 9:02am boasist Not started? There are three of them running right now, so from Kickstarter persepctive, they are started, regardless if they're hopping on the bandwagon or not. Look at the backed items from the OUYA starter, she has pledged several OUYA games that haven't made their Kickstarter money. Now yes, it is too early to ask people for funding money to create a game for a system that doesn't exist yet.

Also announced today - a partnership with XBMC. Which may be a plus, but I would think anyone who even knows what an OUYA is already has XBMC up and running in some fashion. So this device better offer something greater. At the very least, it'd be an alternative for those that don't want to give Apple any money and purchase this instead of an appleTV.
10 Sep 2012 ~ 1:11am bubbagump Even if this thing flops completely what have we lost? Most people 90$ a ton of other people even less. Charities get dough like that all the time out of us and they don't give a thing but a promises. I think everyone is just making TO big of a deal out of this.
17 Nov 2012 ~ 8:59pm You Missing the point, independent developers can now create games on a console for money, it motivates us to do more work.

Also, missing the point about playing 'mobile' games on the television. Sure, android market is mobile touch screen only games, but think of all of the games that developers will make using the controller? It's a dream come true for us, because now we can play our work on the big screen with a traditional controller.

Also it makes all of the games availabe to anyone, and will actually create a real market for us.
9 Jun 2013 ~ 2:53pm Vermy I received an OUYA early backer console a few weeks ago and today I came across this article. Ironically I was reading an article describing objective and subjective truth and how it applies to the media world today. The writer of this featurette either was hard pressed for argument or got up with a chip on his shoulder the day they wrote it. At that time it would be nearly impossible to know anything about the OUYA. Prefacing my comments with the disclaimer I am a rank amateur, I will give the ten points a go:
1. I can't imagine the writer of this could possibly know what price Nvidia would sell the Tegra chip set for if one dedicated an order of this magnitude. Not to mention costs always drop as a technology ages.
2.Again, how could the writer know the "buy in" in a brand new market. I'm going to guess you can't know how games will or will not monetize having not even seen an OUYA at the time of this articles writing.
3.Oh, right open source makes pirating easier... So what platform is pirate proof?
4.If "VG" means video gaming, then I think that is the premise of the OUYA, to break the mold so to speak. We already have the big 3 consoles out there and all the commercialization to boot. Think in terms of Internet Explorer vs. Firefox (OUYA being like Firefox)
5.Again, at the time of the writing of this article, the OUYA wasn't even officially in development, what exactly would the devs be targeting for their games to be on? I can't imagine the port cost from cell phone to OUYA being $100k+ , from other languages, possibly.
6.Hello... $99 and the OUYA will be USB external storage compatible along with sd cards. I hope the writer understands the OUYA isn't trying to be an Xbox, PS3, or Wii. Just a great alternative.
7.Watch the sales and you will.
8.DUH. What's your point, you just said they were (in your opinion) over-funded.
9.At the time of writing the writer hadn't a clue of where the OUYA's would be distributed, the OUYA peeps probably didn't either, but it will be available in many mainstream electronic store venues. I refer to the OUYA.tv website.
10. I was never a fan of the 3DO, or Betamax either, again, what's you're point?

To me the writer of this article is being very "subjective" in their criticisms of the OUYA. I would hope in our beloved country we could be at least a little optimistic, and give the benefit of the doubt to a product that hadn't even been built at the time of the critique. I would think with all the anger at "the man" demonstrated in the occupy movement, something outside the box would be welcomed with open arms?
9 Jun 2013 ~ 3:02pm Vermy In addition, after reading the bio for Mr. Dent, I dare say he may be displaying a little hostility toward a kickstarter project that could have potentially been a Dent Enterprises client... Nonetheless he is knee deep in a market controlled by big money and as such can force the direction. I'll say it again, I love to see anyone try something outside the box.
9 Jun 2013 ~ 7:46pm ardichoke Dunno about the gaming factor, but looking at the product, it might be worthwhile just as a low powered XBMC box.
10 Jun 2013 ~ 11:01am Cliff_Forster I think the detractors of the OUYA are missing the point.

The OUYA is not competing for the same audience that plays HALO and Ratchet and Clank. It's an open platform for more straight forward games for a different audience. The original Wii brought gaming to a new segment, I believe the OUYA will continue to expand the audience.

I think the gamer that is not being catered to right now is the working guy / gal, that remembers playing on consoles before they got complicated. What the OUYA is is a souped up SNES/Genesis like experience with a boat load of possibilities outside of gaming if you want it.

Because it's open and on the android platform the apps that come out for this thing should be exciting. Think about all the apps you would like connected to your home theater, your TV, your speakers without having to tether your phone and expel its valuable battery.

Remember how excited everyone was for the boxee box? Well the OUYA is only $99, fully open, has some developer support for a few pretty cool looking games. It's a completely open Boxee like platform with games.

It's amazing to me, you browse around on forums. You have Xbox fans completely miffed it's a closed platform, I can't sell my games, boo hoo, it checks my connection daily, boo hoo, draconian DRM, waaahhhhh!!!! Then many of the same people dis the OUYA for not having a conventional enough approach?

For ninety nine bucks the OUYA is fucking awesome.
10 Jun 2013 ~ 11:12am mertesn The Raspberry Pi is $40.
10 Jun 2013 ~ 11:30am Cliff_Forster The Raspberry Pi is nothing like the OUYA. The Pi is cool in it's own way, but it has no controller, no software platform of it's own. The Pi is a toy for smart kids. The OUYA is an open media hub for everyone, as well as a toy for smart kids that want to root it.

I can't begin to understand why anyone would be opposed to what the OUYA is attempting? It's so full of possibility.

I understand some skepticism. That I get, but if you look around online it seems like gamers want it to fail. Like they are afraid of it being successful for some reason? I can't begin to understand it.
10 Jun 2013 ~ 12:18pm ardichoke The Pi is much more than a toy for smart kids. It's a platform that you can use for all kinds of projects (if I had the time and desire, I'd get one and use it to deploy some home automation type things). That said, the Pi is way underpowered when it comes to gaming or media applications. Yes, it can run XBMC, but if your movies aren't in just the right format so that the hardware acceleration works it's pretty much useless (or that has been the reports I've seen).
10 Jun 2013 ~ 12:24pm mertesn I haven't had time to beat on any of mine :/ Maybe I should bring them to Expo and see what people can come up with in a short amount of time.
10 Jun 2013 ~ 5:20pm BobbyDigi Duck tape Engineering Challenge 2013: Duck Tape and Pi!