Micron/Intel moving to 2xnm-class NAND in 2010

According to a report at Xbit Labs, the Intel/Micron partnership instrumental in the retail introduction of 34nm chips will once again drive down the price of NAND when it transitions to NAND in the 20nm range in 2010.

“A new story for us in 2010 at this point is the transition [to] 2xnm node, which, [as] we have been saying for some time, will occur throughout the year. […] It is a pretty significant shrink. We are not in position to say exactly how big that is yet, but we will be sampling and you will have the access to that information, but it is pretty significant shrink and it should drive some pretty significant bit growth,” said Micron Technology President and COO Mark Durcan during a quarterly conference call with investors.

Xbit Labs posits, and we agree, that the new cells are likely to be of the 3bpc MLC variety which the firm demonstrated this summer. We further feel it is probable that IM Flash Technology’s switch to a 2xnm process node will more specifically produce cells at 22nm. This scenario, if true, will make for some pretty wild price cuts and capacity improvements. Here’s why:

1. A 36% reduction (34nm to 22nm) in the size of the NAND cells will reduce transistor material costs.
2. Switching to 3bpc MLC improves the storage density of each NAND chip in an SSD by 50%. Today’s MLC drives use 2bpc cells, meaning tomorrow’s SSDs can use roughly 50% less chips for the same capacity. It also means that future SSDs can offer 50% more capacity for the same number of chips (192GB vs 128GB).
3. Shrinking process nodes on an IC dramatically improves foundry throughput. Though the actual cost savings can vary, it becomes substantially cheaper for the foundry to manufacture the parts. Increased market supply also further reduces prices as supply and demand works its magic.

One thing is for certain: If Micron/Intel move as predicted, SSDs are about to get a whole lot bigger and cheaper.

Food for thought: The price of Intel SSDs were cut by 60% when the firm transition from 50nm to 34nm cells. If this formula once again plays out, a 160GB Intel SSD will cost approximately $180 USD.