I was recently inspired by a post at Windows 7 Center which asked if there were any patterns to the Windows 7 leaks. This immediately set the wheels turning and led me to number crunch the statistics for all the leaked builds of Windows 7. As a result, I’ve come up with a prediction for the date and build string for the next leak of Windows 7. Here goes:
Leaked Windows 7 builds:
6.1.6519.1.winmain.071220-1525 (Jun. 10, 2007) [0 days]
6.1.6780.0.winmain_win7m3.080829-1900 (Feb. 15, 2008) [250 days]
6.1.6801.0.winmain_win7m3.080913-2030 (Oct. 29, 2008) [257 days]
6.1.6956.0.winmain.081122-1150 (Dec. 4, 2008) [36 days]
6.1.6936.0.winmain.081023-180 (Dec. 10, 2008) [6 days]
6.1.7000.0.winmain_win7beta.081212-1400 (Dec. 27, 2008) [17 days]
6.1.7022.0.winmain.090115-1850 (Feb.8, 2009) [43 days]
6.1.7048.0.winmain.090219-1845 (Mar. 3, 2009) [23 days]
6.1.7057.0.winmain.090305-2000 (Mar. 12, 2009) [9 days]
6.1.7068.0.winmain.090321-1322 (Mar. 27, 2009) [15 days]
6.1.7077.0.winmain.090404-1255 (Apr. 7, 2009) [11 days]
Entire development:
Avg. delay between builds: 60 days
Longest delay between builds: 257 days (Build 6780 > build 6801)
Shortest delay between builds: 6 days (Build 6956 > build 6936)
Avg. number of builds between leaks: 16
Development post-Beta 1:
Avg. delay between builds: 20 days
Longest delay between builds: 43 days (Build 7000 > build 7022)
Shortest delay between builds: 9 days (Build 7048 > build 7057)
Avg. number of builds between leaks: 9
Predictions:
If the leak schedule proceeds as it has since the advent of Windows 7 build 7000:
Next build to leak: 7086
Est. leak date: Monday April 27, 2009
If the leak schedule proceeds as it has since Windows 7 development began:
Next build to leak: 7093
Est. leak date: June 7, 2009
Clearly the latter of the two is not going to work, so we will place our bets on our phony science for build 7086. Let’s see what happens.
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