CDs and DVDs are 'doomed'

BlackHawkBlackHawk Bible music connoisseurThere's no place like 127.0.0.1 Icrontian
edited September 2003 in Science & Tech
CDs and DVDs are doomed - so say those soothsayers at Forrester, who reckon that the "end of physical media is nearing".

Forrester reckons that a third of all music sales will be made by downloads in the next five years. It also predicts that almost 15 per cent of films will be viewed by "on-demand" services such as cable TV rather than by DVD or video by 2005.

Full story:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/54/32611.html

Comments

  • ThraxThrax 🐌 Austin, TX Icrontian
    edited September 2003
    Hell no.

    This guy's espousing nothing but irrational futurist theories.

    The bandwidth available on the internet to users is far too low for video on demand to ever work properly. It takes 6 hours to download a video of acceptable viewing quality on a 1500/256 DSL line. The bandwidth available to the broadband users in existence will need to TRIPLE before content on demand is going to work for computers.

    I also fail to see how 15% of video on demand constitutes the elimination of DVDs and CDs.

    My idea of video on demand is bit torrent.
  • LIQuidLIQuid Raleigh, NC
    edited September 2003
    i agree, optical media isnt going away ANY time soon
  • TBonZTBonZ Ottawa, ON Icrontian
    edited September 2003
    Yeah, what Thrax said.
  • muddocktormuddocktor
    edited September 2003
    To do what this person has written would take a bandwidth increase of an order of magnitude or two to to able to accomplish, along with a proportionate decrease in bandwidth costs.

    I also fully agree with Thrax.:)
  • LincLinc Owner Detroit Icrontian
    edited September 2003
    As my boss enjoys saying, Forrester is a piss poor excuse for a research firm, and their work is of the lowest quality and totally BS... until you need their research to back up a proposal you're trying to make ;D
  • LeonardoLeonardo Wake up and smell the glaciers Eagle River, Alaska Icrontian
    edited September 2003
    Forrester reckons that a third of all music sales will be made by downloads in the next five years. It also predicts that almost 15 per cent of films will be viewed by "on-demand" services such as cable TV rather than by DVD or video by 2005.

    Not unless their is an unprecidented accelleration of high speed internet connections. Not unless those new connections and existing 'pipes' are greatly fattened. In other words - what a load of malarkey.
  • danball1976danball1976 Wichita Falls, TX
    edited September 2003
    Lets see - the two new innovations that would allow this:
    TCP2
    Gigabit internet pipes instead of the common place 45Mbps pipes.

    The third - Ipv6, I doubt would make any difference (just allows for more IP addresses)
  • CyrixInsteadCyrixInstead Stoke-on-Trent, England Icrontian
    edited September 2003
    When are they predicting a paperless office then?

    ~Cyrix
  • Geeky1Geeky1 University of the Pacific (Stockton, CA, USA)
    edited September 2003
    I believe paperless offices were predicted to be a reality sometime in the '90s... It doesn't appear to have happened yet :rolleyes:
  • gtghmgtghm New
    edited September 2003
    Yea I agree too, the guy is on crack... Hard storage will always be around weather it be floppies, CDs, DVDs or what ever...
    As for pay-perview for almost all movie viewing and stuff, thats also a smoke ring from the crack pipe he's token on... The fact is that the majority of people will not ever go in for being forced to watch a movie on pay-perview.... If you get a dvd or vhs at least you have it to watch another day or you can start and stop it at will.
    Sure there are technologies that allow you to record, alla the PVR (Personal video recorder), from the cable company but you can't keep it forever and the storage is too sensitive to outside infulences like static.
    Nope some kind of seperate hard storage will be here forever... Its just the way us humans are.... we like total security and perminancy.

    and....

    The "paperless office"... right. The so called paperless office has generated more paper and paper waste than ever before.

    The first thing a person does after he inputs info in at my work is print out the result, then because it was done on a printer and can't be erased if something is wrong it gets tossed and a new copy is then generated.
    Once the job is complete we send it to the customer in the forum of a paper and electronic copies, so what's the first thing the customer does? They print it out another set of copies....
    So it seems to me that we now have twice the paper usage except most of it goes into the trash instead of the file cabinet....

    Just another one of technologs big lies....

    "g"
  • ThraxThrax 🐌 Austin, TX Icrontian
    edited September 2003
    Computers exist to relay messages to people telling them to put more stuff down on paper.
  • DexterDexter Vancouver, BC Canada
    edited September 2003
    Most of you guys are assuming that video on demand means internet bandwidth. It doesn't. As GTGHM said, many cable companies offer video on demand via digital cable (ie, not internet.) It goes to a set-top box, with some storage built in. You can buy a movie, have it stream to your home and record at the same time, and you get to watch it for 24 hours, just like a rental. Digital cable and satellite companies have been doing regular pay-per-view for years, but this lets you "rent" the movie for 24 hours (or more if you pay extra) and watch it more than once.

    You can see where that 15% number makes sense. How many movies do you rent in a year, versus how many you actually buy? If you can rent them, on-demand, without getting off your couch, would you? Lots of people already do.

    As for CD or DVD discs being doomed, I say yes and no. Yes, as all physical media technologies except paper have been replaced by newer technolgies. Think reel-to-reel -> 8-track -> cassette -> CD. I would guess that in 20 years, VHS will be a rarity, DVD's will be like VHS is today, and the next best thing will be what we buy our movies on. So, no, I wouldn't say that CD/DVD media is doomed by 2005, not by a long shot.

    Dexter...
  • danball1976danball1976 Wichita Falls, TX
    edited September 2003
    I thought that VHS was already becoming a rarity. Circuit City doesn't sell them anymore, and I hardly see any at Best Buy. I only buy DVD movies, and DVD players are as cheap as $49 now (Aiwa)

    Oh, and DVD recorders are becoming more commonplace

    Currently at the Barksdale BX, prices for DVD recorders:
    Sony - $599
    Panasonic - $449
  • LeonardoLeonardo Wake up and smell the glaciers Eagle River, Alaska Icrontian
    edited September 2003
    Ouch! Those are terrible prices. Dan, I guess you've figured out by now AAFES (Army - Air Force Exchange Service to all you civilian types out there) is a raw deal for tech.
  • danball1976danball1976 Wichita Falls, TX
    edited September 2003
    Leonardo said
    Ouch! Those are terrible prices. Dan, I guess you've figured out by now AAFES (Army - Air Force Exchange Service to all you civilian types out there) is a raw deal for tech.

    How are they bad? As far as I can tell, the Sony DVD recorder is $100 cheaper at the BX than it is at the Sony Website.
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