Are you sure you want or really need the next generation NOW!!!

Mt_GoatMt_Goat Head Cheezy KnobPflugerville (north of Austin) Icrontian
edited July 2007 in Hardware
With all the fuss about the new M2 from AMD and Conroe from Intel I think we all need to step back and take a second look. Sure new technology is fun and exciting but there is a lot of hard truth to it too. I keep reading where someone asks for advice on a new system and the biggest reply is; "Wait, the new stuff will be out shortly." This works for the enthusiast but not for the aveage user/consumer. As enthusiasts we enjoy the challenge of picking apart the flaws of new technology. And somtimes we even enjoy being the first to discover problems even at the monitary expense of such harware. We all certainly enjoy finding the fixes and sharing the wealth of such finds. But can the average guy or gal afford it?

I think people forget that just because there is newer hardware coming out that the old is still good. This is especially true for those who do not upgrade constantly and/or just want a system that will last them for several years. Just because M2 is newer dosen't mean it is better. Since it is new there will be problems till it gets sorted out. Right now the only real change change M2 has compared to 939 is the implementation of DDR2 over DDR. The chips are basically the same untill AMD gets its new 65nm rolling. Also, DDR2 does not have the degreee of quality development that DDR has had for the past several years so it is still lacking in comparason performance wise. On the other side of the fence is Conroe waiting in the wings. Here we have another case of new that still needs further development and refinement. I would be no more eager to go out and buy a new Conroe system than I would an M2 system. It is not like the current (or now past) level of performance is lacking in any way. A well thought out and executed 939 system will play any games that come out in the next 2 years with a level of quality just about anyone would be happy with. There is absolutely no dust on 939 yet. And I don't think 939 will gather much dust for a while yet. Look at how long 754 lasted and it wasn't quite as solid as 939 due to the level of development since its inception. Sure M2 and Conroe are the newest with better things yet to come from both of their platforms. But there is always the price to pay for new technology till it gets straightened out. The big question is; "Can you afford to throw hard earned cash at the new technology till they get it right?" For the vast majority of folks the answer is an ovewhelming "Hell No!".

This is actually one time I am happy to be content with what I currently have after deciding to take the plunge into socket 939 almost 1 1/2 years ago. It can be very overwhelming to be an entusiast on a budget right now. Since I am like most who are enthusiasts on a budget I do a major build about every year or two. This is one time I will excercise the 2 year option and wait for the refinments and further developments to unfold. I actually ended up doing this last time as I wasn't impressed enough with socket 754 when it came out and held on to my NF2/ Mobile XP systems. Those systems were well enogh thought out in the beginning to last me till I found the "Next New Best Thing" in the never ending saga of technology development.
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Comments

  • HawkHawk Fla Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    I agree wholeheartedly MT.
    I'm still running socket A systems because of cost.
    And whenever I build new updated systems for family and friends I get to keep the old systems. Which I put to folding here on my little folding farm.
    And when I build my newer systems- I buy a piece at a time until I get all the parts, then put them together.
    Some time this yr, I'd like to build an Opty 170 system like you have in your sig, but work is a little sporadic, (housing market slowing) so I'm waiting on buying.
    I agree too, that it's best to wait for the bugs to be worked out of this new stuff coming out. Not to mention the price always drops after a newer generation comes out.
  • GHoosdumGHoosdum Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    Larry, this is a truly well thought out position. I definitely agree with you. In fact, I'm gearing up to upgrade my wife's PC from a Barton rig to a Socket 939 system in the near future. I expect 939 prices to take a drop any day now, and that's when I'm buying in.
  • LeonardoLeonardo Wake up and smell the glaciers Eagle River, Alaska Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    Well said, Larry. Another angle from which to view the availability of the newest technology is the affordability it will bring to the previous generation of technology. A case in point is the Pentium D820 systems I run. At the time I purchased them, the fastest AMD X2 and Opterons and Pentium D9xx series dual core CPUs had been out for a few months. The bottom fell out of the price floor on the Intel D8xx series. I picked up the D820s for a song. Except for high power consumption and waste heat, these CPUs have performed beautifully. Let's continue this practical example. What's next? I won't be purchasing the newest Intel or AMD. I'd rather wait a year and let all the early adopters whittle away at the new technology prices. But in the interim, AMD X2 and Intel D9XX CPUs should see a free fall in prices. Just three months ago, this now "old" generation of technology was considered very good. Well, it's still very good, at least for me.

    If there will be garage sale pricing on D930s, I'll probably pick up three or four of them. Plug and play - I've already got the DDR2, motherboards, and powerful PSUs. The newest M2 and Conroe can wait. Don't you want to laugh or feel sorry for all the folks who've just recently purchased high end AMD or Intel systems just before the prices are going to fall dramatically? AMD CPU prices may be cut by up to 50% in the next few weeks. Pentium D chips will also tumble in price. (But then, is the power consumption and heat output of the D9XX better enough to warrant any money at all spent for an upgrade?)
  • Mt_GoatMt_Goat Head Cheezy Knob Pflugerville (north of Austin) Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    Do I feel silly for buying parts last week for a 939 system I am working on this very minute? No! The rig I am building is a replcement for a rig I gave to a family member this past winter and it served a purpose that needed attention. Did I purchase foolishly? No! I already had some decent DDR laying around as well as a case and hard drives. Lets see what I just got.

    Items purchased
    • $100 Motherboard - Asus A8N SLI Premium (bought second hand)
    • $109 CPU - AMD 64 3500
    • $34 Heatsink - Scythe Ninja
    • $128 PSU - Silverstone ST56T
    • $30 DVD burner - NEC 3550
    • $55 Video card - ATI X550 (not going to be gaming)

    Items on hand
    • Memory - Patriot XBLK (TCCD)
    • Hard Drives - WD 36GB Raptor + Hitachi 120 GB SATA 3.0
    • Case - Antec Super Lanboy (120mm in and 120mm out makes for nice and quiet)
    _____________
    Total = $456

    Out of what I just bought I will have a great PSU that will go with me for a long time, a decent heatsink that is reuseable, a DVD burner that will never go out of usefullness and a video card that is good enough for its intened purpose. Only the board and CPU will be obsolete in years to come but I suspect I will get my moneys worth out of them. I didn't need a dual core CPU for this purpose so I was able to keep it cheap.

    ALSO
    Right now M2 is kind of shakey and lots of people are haveing dificulties with it. Socket 939 is rock solid and as powerful as anything needed for todays most demanding apps and games. :respect:
  • csimoncsimon Acadiana Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    amd cpu prices are dropping soon ...I saw someplace that a 5000 would go for $280?

    Nevermind I think they jacked that price back up or something ...it's like $350.

    edit: monarch has some decent pricing going on now.
  • Mt_GoatMt_Goat Head Cheezy Knob Pflugerville (north of Austin) Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    csimon wrote:
    amd cpu prices are dropping soon ...I saw someplace that a 5000 would go for $280?

    Nevermind I think they jacked that price back up or something ...it's like $350.

    edit: monarch has some decent pricing going on now.
    Chris
    That is M2, which is the whole point of the point I made. It is also not just price but the difference between what is currently stable (939 and LGA775) and what still needs a lot of work (M2 and Conroe).
  • KwitkoKwitko Sheriff of Banning (Retired) By the thing near the stuff Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    Well said, Larry. The 939 platform still has a lot of legs. Seeing how it supports single as well as dual core, AMD did a lot with the 939. I'm content building around my current processor rather than jumping into version 1.0 of AM2. I'm sure I can get at least 3 good years out of this system. I'd rather spend to upgrade video card, and add RAM and HD capacity instead of achieving minimal gains with a new platform.

    Intel hasn't quite blown people away lately, and although the preliminary benches for the Conroe look good, they're not awe inspiring. Also, Intel's track record with faulty chips doesn't exactly give me the warm and fuzzies.
  • csimoncsimon Acadiana Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    Mt_Goat wrote:
    Chris
    That is M2, which is the whole point of the point I made. It is also not just price but the difference between what is currently stable (939 and LGA775) and what still needs a lot of work (M2 and Conroe).

    Well ...no wonder! LOL

    I think this past upgrade will last me to the next chip revision beit AM3 or whatever ...at least that's what I'm hoping for.
  • profdlpprofdlp The Holy City Of Westlake, Ohio
    edited July 2006
    How many people regret buying:
    • A Slot-based CPU system?
    • An extra 56K modem and second (or third) phone line for the famous "Shotgun" tech? (Right before broadband really took off.)
    • A Socket 754 system?
    • An Athlon XP CPU just before the Bartons were released?
    • A houseful of Wireless-B stuff?
    • A 24-Port 10-Base Network Switch right before 100MB throughput became available?

    Put me down as another person who would be just as happy to let others pay the hefty premium for being an early-adopter and allow them to do the field testing for new technology. ;)
  • LeonardoLeonardo Wake up and smell the glaciers Eagle River, Alaska Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    No AM2 or Conroe for me until it's been on the market at least six months, maybe a year.
  • Mt_GoatMt_Goat Head Cheezy Knob Pflugerville (north of Austin) Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    profdlp wrote:
    How many people regret buying:
    • A Slot-based CPU system?
    • An extra 56K modem and second (or third) phone line for the famous "Shotgun" tech? (Right before broadband really took off.)
    • A Socket 754 system?
    • An Athlon XP CPU just before the Bartons were released?
    • A houseful of Wireless-B stuff?
    • A 24-Port 10-Base Network Switch right before 100MB throughput became available?

    Put me down as another person who would be just as happy to let others pay the hefty premium for being an early-adopter and allow them to do the field testing for new technology. ;)
    prof
    Reading your post reminded me of the horrors of dialup. :mean: I know for a fact that I could never ever enure that again. When I was in my old neighborhood in rural Alaska a few years ago I was stying with a friend whos only option was dialup on old rural lines. The connection was always timing out or being lost.
  • edited July 2006
    Well, I agree with you pretty much, but will kinda play devil's advocate too.

    Right now, Conroe is no bargain. But also, it's not outrageously expensive either. The biggest problem for the next 3-6 months will be the supply side. If Conroe is scarce, most e-tailers including Newegg will be scalping on prices. Right now, Conroe capable motherboards are pretty much the same way too. If you can find one in stock right now, most e-tailers are scalping on the prices too. But the mobo situation should get much better soon, IMO. So once the supply side is met pretty well, the outrageous pricing should end. That leaves the cost difference between the processors (for a total new system build) as the factor to decide which processor to go with. You should be able to find real cheap deals on Pentium D processors real soon, as well as on the X2's that have 512k L2 cache. Now to add to the total cost of ownership, you also need to figure in the amount of power savings with going with a more efficient, less power hungry processor. In all the Conroe tests I've seen so far, it's full load power consumption is lower than AMD and way lower than Pentium D. With power consumption figured in, Pentium D turns out to be no bargain, over the life of the system. AMD (either socket 939 or AM2) looks to be a much better proposition, cost-wise. And Conroe shows the lowest power consumption, but it's not nearly as great a difference between it and AMD so it would be hard to say if the price difference between Conroe and X2 would offset the little bit extra money required to power the X2 machine.

    But, the rules will change on this by quarter 1 of 2007. Intel plans to start offering a much cheaper Conroe that will have 2 MB L2 cache and no VT, but will run on a 200 fsb. The E4300 will be a 1.8 GHz part with a 9 multi selling in the $160-190 range. With a 200 fsb Conroe the choices for building a budget system that performs like a scalded dog will be much greater. Asrock already has a $50 mobo that is Conroe-ready, uses either ddr or ddr2 and can run either agp or pci-e video cards. The biggest problem with it is that it can't run much beyond 385 fsb, which just kills any high overclocking on the 1066 fsb (actual 266 fsb quad pumped) cheaper Conroes since they use such a low multiplier. And there are supposed to be some other value mobo's coming out too, based on the old reliable 865 chipset.

    Another factor to consider, even for gamers, is that with the latest games you are still held back by the video subsystem maxing out before the cpu becomes the bottleneck. And that is even with running high end cards in SLI/Crossfire when the resolution is cranked up and all the eyecandy turned on. I figure it will be at least a year before you see the video subsystem being advanced far enough to where you see a noticable difference in gameplay between a Conroe and socket 939/AM2 because the cpu is bottlenecking performance.

    In summary, unless you are an ardent gamer and want to be able to run future high end vid cards, AMD is still a great choice to make for a system, especially with the recent price cuts on the X2-3800 and X2-4200 procs. But 6 months down the road, the cheap Conroes will negate any price advantage AMD has and Conroe would be the much preferred choice for a new build.

    As far as for me, I do plan to build a Conroe system in the next month or 2. It might be primarily a folding rig at first, since I will have to buy mobo, proc and ddr2 just to get running (I have a pci vid card I can use in it). I have an older system (or 3) I plan to phase out with it and I can't wait to play with Intel's new toys.:eek:
  • csimoncsimon Acadiana Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    muddocktor wrote:
    As far as for me, I do plan to build a Conroe system in the next month or 2. It might be primarily a folding rig at first, since I will have to buy mobo, proc and ddr2 just to get running (I have a pci vid card I can use in it). I have an older system (or 3) I plan to phase out with it and I can't wait to play with Intel's new toys.:eek:

    Heh let me know when you're ready to phase out the redlines ...mine are getting lonely!

    Do 4 sticks run dual channel?
  • edited July 2006
    Heh, the redlines will be here for a while. After all, my daughter's rig is one of the older ones and will be one of the first to go and then she will inherit my Opty system. :D

    AFAIK, the redlines will run in DC mode, but I think it will put a big strain on the onboard mem controller on the chip so you might not have the overclocking headroom you presently have.
  • csimoncsimon Acadiana Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    muddocktor wrote:
    Heh, the redlines will be here for a while. After all, my daughter's rig is one of the older ones and will be one of the first to go and then she will inherit my Opty system. :D

    AFAIK, the redlines will run in DC mode, but I think it will put a big strain on the onboard mem controller on the chip so you might not have the overclocking headroom you presently have.

    Yeah it probably would tax the hell out of the cpu ...well it was worth a shot and I won't be ready for anything else for quite a while anyway. Might not be a good idea ...2gb should be plenty to handle Vista.
  • Mt_GoatMt_Goat Head Cheezy Knob Pflugerville (north of Austin) Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    I hope no one minds, I stuck it for a while.
  • airbornflghtairbornflght Houston, TX Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    Yes, I think that I want the next gen, need? probably not, but really, if you think about it, what more do we need more than food water and a roof over our head, cable tv and electricity are just luxuries, a lot of things are, and it all depends on what you can afford to purchase, does anyone need a car, no, but it is mistaken as a necessity quite often.

    If you are refering to need in the sense of being able to run the software, then right now, no, but I think very shortly we are going to see software coded to take advantage of multiple cores and 64 bit processing, and then all the single core processors are gonna be begging for mercy, and the 32 bit processors will be worse off yet.
  • Mt_GoatMt_Goat Head Cheezy Knob Pflugerville (north of Austin) Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    Yes, I think that I want the next gen, need? probably not, but really, if you think about it, what more do we need more than food water and a roof over our head, cable tv and electricity are just luxuries, a lot of things are, and it all depends on what you can afford to purchase, does anyone need a car, no, but it is mistaken as a necessity quite often.

    If you are refering to need in the sense of being able to run the software, then right now, no, but I think very shortly we are going to see software coded to take advantage of multiple cores and 64 bit processing, and then all the single core processors are gonna be begging for mercy, and the 32 bit processors will be worse off yet.
    I don't think you have been paying attention.

    You're dismissed!
  • airbornflghtairbornflght Houston, TX Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    I just read 1/2 of the first post. I was tired/lazy.
  • HawkHawk Fla Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    Yes, I think that I want the next gen, need? probably not, but really, if you think about it, what more do we need more than food water and a roof over our head, cable tv and electricity are just luxuries, a lot of things are, and it all depends on what you can afford to purchase, does anyone need a car, no, but it is mistaken as a necessity quite often.

    I'll just regard the comments about electricity and having a car/truck in my case as inexperience of life, being your only 17.
    We could all just live in a dirt floor hut, make a ditch out back for a bathroom.
    I could pull my generator, compressor, tools, materials for job, etc, in a wagon -30 mi a day to make money to live.
    This is not meant to be rude or mean, just that these things are neccesary to live in this country anyway.
    Sorry for the thread hijack, but that just struck me.
  • TimTim Southwest PA Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    My 2-1/2 year old computer that I built runs good for me. I play no games on the computer. Abit NF7, Barton 2500 @ 2.2 Ghz (11X200), 768 MB RAM, 128 MB 9200SE $50 video card.

    I would like to upgrade it a bit, maybe some more RAM or something, but then again I figure if I'm going to do that I might as well buy a whole new system.

    But that costs money, so my old reliable system doesn't look so bad after all.:rockon:
  • profdlpprofdlp The Holy City Of Westlake, Ohio
    edited July 2006
    Until January of 2005 I was still using my venerable KT7A-RAID with a T-Bird 1200. It got the job done.

    It really made me see and feel the difference once I did upgrade, though. :D
  • CBCB Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ Der Millionendorf- Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    My computer is like the mechanics car ;)

    I always recomend the best stuff and the top-of-the-line for my clients, but my own system is filled with second-hand and second-rate peices, which only continue to work together because of ancient spell circles painted inside of the case, and an army of voodoo-esk worry-dolls standing watch from the outside...

    and sometimes I have to kick it... especially if I've left it off for awhile...


    I save a lot of money personally, by never buying the top-of-the-line, but I can only do that because I seem to occasionally know what I'm doing ;)
  • edited July 2006
    You smell that? That smelly smell...that smelly smell that smells smelly....

    LOWTECHS!!!!!! ;D

    Bring on the CONROES!!!! WOOO!!!

    (I know, I know...I'm dismissed.)
  • airbornflghtairbornflght Houston, TX Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    Maybe I should have stated instead that your needs are dependent on what you are trying to accomplish, therefore no one's needs will be the same, and that applies to almost every situation.:thumbsup:
  • LeonardoLeonardo Wake up and smell the glaciers Eagle River, Alaska Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    How many of us upgrade based on "need?"
  • WuGgaRoOWuGgaRoO Not in the shower Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    to be honest...if ur a simple internet user and don't play any games u need nothing more then a 1.2ghz cpu and a good gig of ram for good measure and a 64 meg graphics card...perhaps 128 if you really wanna get cooking..but at any rate... we will all need to upgrade when vista comes out..i ran it on my 2..53 ghz and 1gig of ram and it was as slightly oval wheels... i mean it ran kinda well... but i find that xp ran much more efficiently..

    but to answer leo's question: we only need to upgrade when a new OS comes out...if your a simple comp user
  • edited July 2006
    WuGgaRoO wrote:
    we only need to upgrade when a new OS comes out...if your a simple comp user
    I'm a PC gamer living on the bleeding edge. I need to upgrade when games dictate such as low frame rates or anything less than HIGH settings for graphics and video. So for me, I may need to upgrade when a new game is released which happens a lot more often than new OS releases. :bawling:

    However, this thread is not for enthusiasts like me. And I do agree that most average users/consumers do not need the latest and greatest gear. I build computers for a lot of my friends at work. Everyone of them says I want a really fast computer. I always ask them what they will be using it for and 99% of the time the response is, "To surf the internet." Then I proceed to build them a "blazing fast" computer using last generation componets at rock bottom prices. Never had an unsatisfied customer yet.
  • airbornflghtairbornflght Houston, TX Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    Leonardo wrote:
    How many of us upgrade based on "need?"

    To be honest, a lot of enthusiast dont, however, people that I have worked on their computers, and even my parents do upgrade based on need. my parents will use a computer till the hypothetical wheels fall off. I have worked on peoples computer using Win 98, and they get mad when I tell them that it is almost an unsupported OS, and that it is the reason they cant run some programs.

    So yes, you have a point, "us", the enthusiast community almost never upgrades off of the principle of need, more so of want. however, your casual user in my experience doesn't care as long as it works, and wont care until something borks when they push the power button; or if they can not install some software that they recently purchased.
  • Mt_GoatMt_Goat Head Cheezy Knob Pflugerville (north of Austin) Icrontian
    edited July 2006
    Daxx wrote:
    I'm a PC gamer living on the bleeding edge. I need to upgrade when games dictate such as low frame rates or anything less than HIGH settings for graphics and video. So for me, I may need to upgrade when a new game is released which happens a lot more often than new OS releases. :bawling:

    However, this thread is not for enthusiasts like me. And I do agree that most average users/consumers do not need the latest and greatest gear. I build computers for a lot of my friends at work. Everyone of them says I want a really fast computer. I always ask them what they will be using it for and 99% of the time the response is, "To surf the internet." Then I proceed to build them a "blazing fast" computer using last generation componets at rock bottom prices. Never had an unsatisfied customer yet.
    Daxx
    I appreciate your enthusiasim. And don't write me off as a low-tech either! If you read the entire first post word for word and don't assume anything (assume; adj. to make an a** of you and me) you will see that I am mainly getting at the fact that both new platforms have flaws and pitfalls that in my book don't warrant the imediate need to move to either one of them. There is a time when bleeding edge also equals bleeding wallet with no recourse for redemption. How well will a new game play on a system that is not stable enough to run for very long? How well will a new game run when you need to lower the system settings to very low levels just so it can operate? This is one time when waiting out the first revision may just be a real good idea! With the problems already evident from users with AM2 that are well documented. And then there are the unknown problems of Conroe that haven't had time to rear their ugly heads because it is being rammed through development so fast just to beat the competition that it will take real world use to find. You also speak of new games needing the power of new technology. The video cards are much more of a bottleneck in todays systems than the system itself. Then you get to the ongoing issue of games and software being years behind the hardware market. The hardware of last year will work circles around the games and software to be produced till next Summer! Look at the rig in my sig below and tell me that simply upgrading to the latest greatest video card would let me play the most demanding games to come out in the year to come!
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