No chance

Lincoln Russell 18 Dec, 2007 at 9:09am ET Article published in Tech

Ballmer, circa 4/29/07: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” It now outsells all Windows Mobile devices combined. (via DF)

Comments

18 Dec 2007 ~ 6:29pm fatcat the interview: CEO Forum: Microsoft's Ballmer having a 'great time'

the question/answer:
Q: People get passionate when Apple comes out with something new — the iPhone; of course, the iPod. Is that something that you'd want them to feel about Microsoft?

A: It's sort of a funny question. Would I trade 96% of the market for 4% of the market? (Laughter.) I want to have products that appeal to everybody.

Now we'll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.

In the case of music, Apple got out early. They were the first to really recognize that you couldn't just think about the device and all the pieces separately. Bravo. Credit that to Steve (Jobs) and Apple. They did a nice job.

But it's not like we're at the end of the line of innovation that's going to come in the way people listen to music, watch videos, etc. I'll bet our ads will be less edgy. But my 85-year-old uncle probably will never own an iPod, and I hope we'll get him to own a Zune.
18 Dec 2007 ~ 6:51pm Snarkasm Is there any data or numbers anywhere that will actually show me that the iPhone has outsold WM?

Not that I doubt it, but I haven't seen any numbers in any of these links.
18 Dec 2007 ~ 7:21pm Linc Yus. http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/12/14/canalys-symbian-apple-iphone-already-leads-windows-mobile-in-us-market-share-q3-2007/
18 Dec 2007 ~ 7:34pm Snarkasm Gotcha. Nice.
19 Dec 2007 ~ 8:09am Kwitko It doesn't surprise me. I own a Motorola Q with Windows Mobile 5. Worst. Portable. OS. Evar. No copy/cut and paste unless you get 3rd party software. WTF???
19 Dec 2007 ~ 1:00pm Snarkasm Well, the iPhone can't do it at all, and there is no third-party software, so take your pick, I guess.
19 Dec 2007 ~ 1:11pm Thrax Or you can get a Blackberry Curve, and do everything the iPhone and windows mobile can do.
19 Dec 2007 ~ 1:16pm mas0n

Kwitko wrote:

It doesn't surprise me. I own a Motorola Q with Windows Mobile 5. Worst. Portable. OS. Evar. No copy/cut and paste unless you get 3rd party software. WTF???

You need to blame Motorola for that. The Q is one of 4 WM5 devices i have owned and it is the only one w/o cut, copy, or paste.
19 Dec 2007 ~ 3:59pm Shorty

Thrax wrote:

Or you can get a Blackberry Curve, and do everything the iPhone and windows mobile can do.

Yarp. I have one of those and iphone still sucks.
19 Dec 2007 ~ 5:03pm BlackHawk HTC 8525 (mine) > Blackberry Pearl (dad's) > *

God I hate the OS on the blackberry. What's so wrong with WM6? With third party software, I can watch dvix/xvid, play SNES roms, gigs of music, MS office apps, Opera mobile, wardriving, gps nav (with external reciever), internet gateway and much more I haven't bothered to find. Can the iPod do that?
19 Dec 2007 ~ 5:08pm Thrax Pearl <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Curve
19 Dec 2007 ~ 6:33pm BlackHawk Edit: My dad used to have a Pearl, he now has a Curve for which he uses none of it's features :banghead:. I think he got a pda/smartphone for the hell of it.

Still meant the HTC > Blackberry thing.
19 Dec 2007 ~ 6:35pm Thrax What don't you like about RIM's OS?
19 Dec 2007 ~ 7:10pm BlackHawk

Thrax wrote:

What don't you like about RIM's OS?

It feels like going from Windows to Ubuntu. Took me a thread and 20 questions so I could change the resolution. That's not even mentioning all the time it took me to figure out that sudo stuff.

Took forever to figure out how to setup a POP3 email account and I hated how I had to create a RIM account (or was it AT&T?). All of his inboxes on the front screen? On top of that, the media player sucks.

I guess it's just that I'm used to windows and windows mobile is an extension of that. Hit "Start", "Programs", etc.
19 Dec 2007 ~ 9:16pm mas0n

Black Hawk wrote:

Took forever to figure out how to setup a POP3 email account and I hated how I had to create a RIM account (or was it AT&T?)

I have to agree with you there, I don't like the method of configuring mail accounts on a Blackberry, but otherwise I have to say that I really like them. I'll probably continue to use Windows Mobile into the foreseeable future for myself, but I get BB for most of my clients. They "just work."
20 Dec 2007 ~ 10:17am Kwitko

Black Hawk wrote:

What's so wrong with WM6?

What's wrong is that Motorola hasn't yet made an upgrade available from WM5.
20 Dec 2007 ~ 10:30am BlackHawk Have you checked Motorola user forums? My phone had an unofficial tweaked WM6 rom over 6 months ago but the official release was like a month ago.
20 Dec 2007 ~ 11:50am Kwitko I would need to update to the Q9.

Do you have a link to a good user forum?
20 Dec 2007 ~ 3:11pm BlackHawk You could try here.
20 Dec 2007 ~ 4:19pm Kwitko Ain't happenin'. Looks like the only way to get WM6 is get the Q9.