Vista sales sluggish, must be the pirates

Jared Atchison 21 Feb, 2007 at 1:41am ET Article published in Tech

MS CEO Steve Ballmer blames software pirates for Vista’s slow start.

Developers, Developers, Developers, Developers! This was the past battle cry of infamous Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer. Ballmer is widely known for his outgoing attitude and wild comments.

Lately Steve Ballmer has been playing the blame game. Who might he be blaming? Pirates. Analysts have reported that Windows Vista sales are off to a slow start compared to the generous predictions Microsoft originally gave (90 million copies in ’07). Steve says people pirating Vista are a big reason for the less-than-stellar sales.

Those are some big words to accuse internet piracy for a products slow launch; on the flip side it is predicted that 33% of all Microsoft Software available worldwide is pirated so their accusations might be justified.

Comments

1. 
   21 Feb 2007 ~ 6:36am godzilla525 Developers indeed. I'll just leave it that I'm not pleased with the bloat that is managed code and .NET, and there is significant room for improvement in their 'technically correct but thoroughly useless' documentation.
   
   I still haven't been able to find out how to prompt a user for saving files from MDI apps in Visual Basic, nor do I care to decode the Microsoft-specific jargon.
   
   I'm going back to ANSI C and assembler. Yeah it's more work but there was am immense amount of time wasted on trying to find out how to do common UI tasks with VB .NET.
   
   I think Vista sales are off because it didn't bring much of anything new to windows itself, the way XP brought the better NT kernel mainstream. I run older (4-7 year old) hardware which isn't able to take advantage of hardware DEP, Aero, or handle the indexing system very well. Why add unnecessary overhead to the things I do everyday for no tangible benefit?...especially with the idiotic hardware, driver, and software requirements foisted on them by the entertainment industry. This is my computer and it will stay that way.
   
   I'll probably continue to run XP until it becomes more or less unsupported. Probably Linux after that.
2. 
   21 Feb 2007 ~ 7:12am deepsea Pirates? Yeah, right. I tried the Beta versions, and was less than impressed. The speed with which the OS operated improved as the versions progressed, but the difficulty accessing basic functions, HDCP which would require additional hardware upgrades, and steep price of entry for a fully functional version will keep me on the sidelines. Does anyone know if there is a trial version for Apple Tiger/Leopard?
3. 
   21 Feb 2007 ~ 7:36am RichD To be fair look at all the problems Microsoft had with XP. Is it any wonder people are waiting until the platform has been in circulation for a while?
4. 
   21 Feb 2007 ~ 7:49am Shorty Yep.. it's gotta be pirates.
   
   Can't be to do with lack of WHQL nVidia drivers worth a damn, lack of Creative Inc WHQL drivers, half the common audio applications (FL Studio, Sonar...) don't work under Vista's new driver model.
   
   It also can't be to do with the huge difference in price among other markets. It costs the same in British sterling (pounds) as it does to buy the equivilant in US Dollars.
   
   Damn those pirates huh??
5. 
   21 Feb 2007 ~ 8:57am primesuspect I personally think the biggest problem is what Godzilla525 mentioned: Nobody really needs Vista. I'll use "all my customers" as a general demographic - there is not one feature that Vista brings to the table that they "need". XP is too good right now. It does everything, it does it fast, it's stable... What more do you need? Nobody gives a crap about paying $150-$400 for Aero Glass. Sluggish sales? Nobody wants or needs Vista.
6. 
   21 Feb 2007 ~ 9:15am shwaip It's can't be pirates...vista doesn't have certified drivers for their keyboard layout yet...
   
7. 
   21 Feb 2007 ~ 10:08am QCH Corporate view point... We won't begin to migrate until SP1, and before that, applications that we use need to be released for Vista. Before that, the drivers need to be very stable. Before that, all of our support staff needs to be trained. Finally (or first off) there needs to be quality training available for corporate level support people...
   
   In my company... that's over 3,000 PC that will NOT be going Vista for at least a year and a half.
8. 
   21 Feb 2007 ~ 10:54am primesuspect The point I was making is this: What WILL Vista do for an organization like yours, Q? What features are missing from XP that you need right now?
   
   I am always a moving forward kinda guy - I always keep up to date, I buy into the latest tech, I'm an early adopter, I believe in progress, etc... but Vista just isn't a compelling upgrade right now. I'm curious to see what IS the compelling, lets-jump-the-fence feature.
9. 
   21 Feb 2007 ~ 11:22am QCH

   primesuspect wrote:

   The point I was making is this: What WILL Vista do for an organization like yours, Q? What features are missing from XP that you need right now?
   
   I am always a moving forward kinda guy - I always keep up to date, I buy into the latest tech, I'm an early adopter, I believe in progress, etc... but Vista just isn't a compelling upgrade right now. I'm curious to see what IS the compelling, lets-jump-the-fence feature.

   
   In general, Vista adds more robust and configurable Firewall through Domain Group Policies, new Domain Group Policies to manage and secure Domain Vista PCs, and an overall more secure environment. Downside... We still have Windows 2000 PCs to migrate to WinXP. We have to do this soon since W2K is at "End-of-life" and that means it may not be secure any longer. Budgets for government facilities is not great of late and we have many systems that are under 500 MHz, thus there is NO WAY that we can really upgrade to WinXP and maintain quality computing, let alone upgrade to Vista. These systems would need to be replaced with new Vista compatible systems and there is no money for that.
   
   Overall... our organization is apprehensive to change unless pushed down from DoE or from Microsoft. We ARE looking forward to the advancements of Vista but theses advancements are overshadowed by the burden and expense needed to implement Vista.
10. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 11:32am Garg There's a lot of reasons it's not selling, but the two biggest for me is that:

    • Windows XP works fine, at least right now.
    • Windows is sold with an antiquated pricing structure. I'm just not paying that much for it.
11. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 1:56pm Komete What is holding me back is all the options and different variants. That and compatibility. XP was gotta have imo but vista is like why bother. I will eventually get it once I figure out all my drivers and such.
12. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 2:05pm primesuspect Komete, check out our super simplified guide to choosing a Vista version
13. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 2:08pm jared As prime said, imho Vista isn't really bringing anything new to the table. Its like if they put a new coat of paint on a the car and added some shinny new rims, because really thats about all they have done.
    
    I ran Vista RC1 for about 2 months and I was not impressed. It was slower (obviosuly probably because it was beta but still) and didn't make me any more productive. It just had a lot of extra crap I never used the whole 2 months I was using the OS.
    
    XP is as close to perfected as it is going to get. I think I am going to stay with it at least until Vista SP1 comes out or I get a new computer. Besides that, Vista won't be available to students through the A&M software center until May or June.
    
    I would rather put my money into Office 2007.
    
    cheers
14. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 3:20pm Linc

    jared wrote:

    I would rather put my money into Office 2007.

    I wouldn't. It's quite possible I'll ever buy a new version of Office. Why?
    

    • Thunderbird > Outlook
    • Google Docs & Apps > Word & Excel (for my low-end purposes)
    • If I get to a point where I regularly need PowerPoint (unlikely) I'd do it on a Mac platform and use Keynote - it's so superior it's silly.
    • MySQL + PHP > Access
    • Dreamweaver > Frontpage (by 15 million landslides)

    And, oh right, 3/5 of that list is free. Why would I pay a couple hundred for products that are either inferior or full of features I never use?
    
    I absolutely agree with Brian and the fact that Vista is overpriced given its functionality. The amount of work (for me) done by Windows applications vs. Internet applications is continually drifting towards my browser.
    
    My college recently started moving towards a app server / dumb terminal arrangement in some parts of the campus. Old machines are loaded with Windows Legacy (yeah, it exists) and then Remote Desktop into the app server. This lets 500 MHz machines run advanced apps like Photoshop easily. There are definitely bugs that they've hit along the way, but it was really their only option for staying ahead of the problem Q described.
    
    I'm sure they'll move to Vista on their newer boxes at some point, but I wouldn't be surprised if they reevaluate their dependence on Microsoft products overall in the meantime.
15. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 3:41pm Garg Oh man, how can you use Google Docs? They drive me nuts. It's nice to have the documents available wherever you log in, but other than that I haven't used it much. Have you used OpenOffice before? Their PowerPoint clone is actually better than PowerPoint, IMO.
    
    I'd say overall OpenOffice/StarOffice is 90% as good as MS Office, for $0.
16. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 3:43pm QCH

    General Keebler wrote:

    I wouldn't. It's quite possible I'll ever buy a new version of Office. Why?

    • Thunderbird > Outlook
    • Google Docs & Apps > Word & Excel (for my low-end purposes)
    • If I get to a point where I regularly need PowerPoint (unlikely) I'd do it on a Mac platform and use Keynote - it's so superior it's silly.
    • MySQL + PHP > Access
    • Dreamweaver > Frontpage (by 15 million landslides)

    And, oh right, 3/5 of that list is free. Why would I pay a couple hundred for products that are either inferior or full of features I never use?

    
    Two answers...
    

    1. Common users have been indoctrinated into the Microsoft world and things not MS seem difficult to adopt. Word will always feel like home for common folk. Open Office, Google Apps, and such all work fine if you have the time to train users how to use them. Support for each of them is a pain with tons of training for the support staff... It's sad but MS has many companies hostage in this regards...
    2. Tying in with #1... Since a company cannot move to other products, they cannot afford to drop MS because everyone else in industry is using Microsoft products. It's become a standard. I've seen TOO many Open Office documents, saved in MS Word format, not look right or blend correctly when collaborating. What I've seen is Adobe Acrobat for PDFs and MS Office for documents, spreadsheets, and presentations. Firefox is really the only product that has been able to push MS, and Firefox is still not even up to 30% of the Browser market...

    Oh... Dreamweaver is expensive when compared to Frontpage.
17. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 4:03pm Thrax Yes, but Frontpage is also terrible.
18. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 6:54pm jared First off FrontPage is dead. Even the server side extensions are no longer supported by MS.
    
    Secondly, I agree.. free apps are great, I've used most of the ones you named. However, MS Office is still a better set of apps for the advanced user.
    
    It is like when people say to me "Why do you use photoshop, just use GIMP.. after all its almost the same thing".
    Pfft... almost the same thing. Yeah right. GIMP is almost the same thing to photoshop if you only know how to use about 2% of its features. While I agree Thunderbird, for example, is a great app.... but if you are an advanced outlook user it doesn't get the job done.
    
    cheers :cheers3:
19. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 7:10pm profdlp

    jared wrote:

    ...I agree Thunderbird, for example, is a great app.... but if you are an advanced outlook user it doesn't get the job done...

    I finally dropped Outlook for Thunderbird about three months ago. Other than the Calendar, I don't miss it at all.
    
    As an added bonus, the "Rules" feature actually works the first time you set it up, without endless tweaking, etc.
20. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 11:01pm Leonardo

    Nobody really needs Vista...there is not one feature that Vista brings to the table that they "need". XP is too good right now. It does everything, it does it fast, it's stable... What more do you need?

    That's the way I look at it, and the way a few million others look at it as well, I'm sure. The jump from Windows 98's memory (mis)management and fragile FAT filing system to WinXP's stability was huge. But many of us at that transition time had already used Windows NT and knew at least some of the real advantages that would come with XP. We had also heard stories about greatly reduced blue screens, and extended periods of XP uptime without reboots, not to mention easy home networking. There was really something there that was functionally attractive. Try explaining to most any ordinary Windows user or small business why they should upgrade. Frankly, the arguments for moving 'up' are pretty difficult to find if the consumer is well versed in XP or Win2K. (Hey, I wonder of low-priced Win2K CDs will start appearing on the secondary market now? Hmmm Probably not.:sad2:)
21. 
    21 Feb 2007 ~ 11:11pm Oriane Piracy? I cannot think of a reason less likely to be the cause of Vista’s slow adoption. It assumes that people want it enough to risk having it.
    
    Vista is not ready for the general public to adopt and accept. I’ve heard over and over again- “give it time, so the bugs can be ironed out”. If it’s really a “beta” or a “trial” copy, then maybe Microsoft should put a warning on the box when releasing it to the general public. After all, if they have to put warning labels on cigarettes then maybe they should also put them on retailed beta code.
    
    Most people that I encounter do not have a computer background that goes much beyond figuring out how and where to print something out. Many have hundreds, even thousands of dollars tied up into their working software that may not work for whatever reason on Vista. Legacy installs are like trial-by-jury cross-examinations to complete and then, as often as not, they will not launch even after a supposed success.
    
    Despite what MS may think, people actually have grown fond of XP and the applications they’ve installed on it and people simply can’t understand why it has to be so difficult and expensive to transition to Vista. They do not want to be Microsoft beta testers but productive users and/or get on with their entertainment. I think this was pretty callous to market the product as it is right now.
22. 
    22 Feb 2007 ~ 5:24am RWB HAHAHAHAHAHA! If I were given a free [legal or not] copy of Vista I still wouldn't install it, not until SP1 anyways. Or when I read reviews showing that it's better than XP.
23. 
    22 Feb 2007 ~ 7:39am Thrax Yeah, I have a Vista Ultimate RTM copy gathering dust. It's not getting installed in the foreseeable future. Working with Vista <i>every day</i> at work has done nothing to help me see its benefits (None). All I see is a very slow operating with horrible driver support and no significant gains.
24. 
    22 Feb 2007 ~ 8:33am mtrox

    primesuspect wrote:

    I'll use "all my customers" as a general demographic - there is not one feature that Vista brings to the table that they "need". ...Nobody gives a crap about paying $150-$400 for Aero Glass.

    
    I've had the same exact thought. God as my witness, I'm telling you that about half of my users watch over my shoulder as I right click and say, "Oh that's right, I always forget about that other mouse button", then they giggle. It's pretty tough to explain, in terms simple enough for my users, how Vista will make their life better.
    
    I do think there are enough advantages for Enterprises that it will gain traction there. Its just not stuff that appeals to the average joe.
25. 
    22 Feb 2007 ~ 10:33am edcentric Leo, I am with you.
    I am on the lookout for w2k system discs. Since we all know that it would be wrong to install the same software on 6 machines.
    Heck, we might even see low cost XP hitting the market soon. That I would pick up.
    Vista? When there are apps that I want that need it I move. I am a single (rather independent) user in a medium sized company. I have used four different word processors over the years (starting with MultiMate) and four different spreadsheets.
    Heck, I might end up running openoffice, unless MS gives me reasons not to.
26. 
    22 Feb 2007 ~ 11:09am Linc

    QCH2002 wrote:

    Common users have been indoctrinated into the Microsoft world and things not MS seem difficult to adopt.

    I'm well versed in this problem, but at some point I think the scale is going to tip on this one. How much is it worth to businesses to NOT have to have people switch? A tens-of-thousands-of-dollars site license every year? When does it exceed the cost of hiring people (or paying for the man hours of existing staff) to migrate everyone?

    QCH2002 wrote:

    Since a company cannot move to other products, they cannot afford to drop MS because everyone else in industry is using Microsoft products. It's become a standard. I've seen TOO many Open Office documents, saved in MS Word format, not look right or blend correctly when collaborating.

    Honestly, I've run into significant problems people just trying to collaborate with MS Word from MS Word It really fumbles the ball on longer works like books. Coming from a college setting, I'd have to say that this issue is something to consider but not a prime reason for ending the discussion of a switch.
    
    To be fair, I recommend against a switch to OpenOffice while I was there and probably still would today. I'm only arguing that the potential is there and growing. I think I'd soon be hard-pressed to justify staying with MS, especially once we hit the cost of upgrading.

    QCH2002 wrote:

    Oh... Dreamweaver is expensive when compared to Frontpage.

    Well, yeah... except in education

    Thrax wrote:

    Yes, but Frontpage is also terrible.

    Which is why DW is worth the premium

    profdlp wrote:

    I finally dropped Outlook for Thunderbird about three months ago. Other than the Calender, I don't miss it at all.

    Precisely

    jared wrote:

    but if you are an advanced outlook user it doesn't get the job done.

    I have never met this person. In fact, the "advanced users" of ANY product I could count on my fingers and most of the time they were tech staff anyway. In Outlook's case... I knew of 4 (including myself) and we were all on the tech staff. People don't become advanced users of anything unless they need to, and the need for being a scheduling-guru simply wasn't there.
27. 
    22 Feb 2007 ~ 11:22am EyesOnly Why i'm not upgrading? 2 reasons: stability and compatibility. It's been mentioned that drivers aren't up to the job and that's bad. I wish they'd given hardware manufacturers a copy of vista like 6 months before the public got it so there would have been time to get proper drivers ready. And some say that you shouldn't use any ms apps, especially before a service pack is released. Hence why i'll wait at least untill sp1 is out.
    
    As far as compatability is concerned, what apps will or will not work on vista? Sure mozillas stuff will work. But how about my games? The reason i just upgraded my computer was so i could play ut2k4 and americas army without having to lower the resolution to low. Will they work at the same speed in vista? Not if the graphics drivers are troublesome.
    
    And how about all the other apps i have. I would eiter have to visit their website or just try to install them anyways and hope for the best. No i'm waiting so the developers have had time to fix new versions of their software.
    
    And about pirates causing the low sales. Ha. I was under the impression that you can't run windows for long before you have to activate it. Is vista so different. No i belive he's fishing, unfortunatly many will belive him. :sad2: Then again he has ones again put sweden on the map by advertising what must be our most famous company at the time.
28. 
    22 Feb 2007 ~ 8:19pm Butters Though I don't disagree with M$ for blaming Pirates, its probably part of the reason, but I ask myself a few questions that make me wonder.
    
    What percentage of pirates are still currently selling or even outselling win XP over Vista?
    
    I know its a dubious question, but I bet XP probably still has some demand. Granted, as of (2/22/07) Amazon's Full Version (Non Upgrade) Vista Ultra is #44 in software sales and Full XP Pro (Non Upgrade) is #49. (Upgrade versions of both OS's are higher in sales.) http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/software/51560011/ref=pd_ts_pg_2/105-9059820-6773223?ie=UTF8&pg=2
    
    
    If Vista sales is affected by pirates, then how about Office 2007?
    
    I absolutely love Office 2007. If I didn't have a MSDN VL subscription, I would definately buy it. If I really had the desire to acquire it illegitimately, then I would take that risk, because its worth it (pros to MS for worthwhile software). Office 2007 is a good product. I'll recommend it to anyone. I guess thats why is Office 2007 is off to a better than expected start.
    http://news.com.com/More+buyers+home+in+on+Office+2007/2100-1012_3-6158723.html [article misidentified first week of sales]
    
    If a rep from Microsoft or any Authorized Dealer gave me Vista Ultra for free, would I use it?
    
    I think it would probably still be in a drawer somewhere after at least 1 year. I basically wouldn't use it if they gave that pile away for free. I wish I had statistics of the express upgrade to Vista for all the PC's elegible for it, I wonder what the ratio of how many PC's were eligible to those claimed.
29. 
    24 Feb 2007 ~ 4:34am RWB I think pirates are smart enough to stay away from Vista? I mean if we don't want it, why would they?
    
    ADD:
    
    OK I now feel the need to give an actual comment... I don't think the OS is really the major problem anymore, it still has it's little things to work out. But really... what is the issue? It's a new OS so naturally certain programs are not going to be 100% compatible. But also, drivers... NVidia and ATi as we all know are still basically on beta drivers for this OS, but I am sure mostly to due with the changes MS made to the OS towards the end maybe?
    
    By the time SP1 rolls out, Microsoft will and had better have fixed all their ****, but also the other hardware companies like ATi and NVidia should have had enough time to perfect their drivers.
    
    I would bet is that SP1 will make Vista worth pirating.
30. 
    24 Feb 2007 ~ 3:56pm jared A good point was raised.
    
    Now that I think about it, I had a bunch of buddies that all pirated XP when it came out. They were all slapping copies of it on their machine with the infamous FCKGW key.
    
    Fast forward years down the road, not one of those guys has Vista installed, much less a pirated version. As far as I know they are still going strong with their copies of hacked/pirated XP.
    
    The bottom line is, besides the sleek new interface (which why the hell do I care? I run XP in classic mode with all the extra crap turned off anyways) Vista doesn't offer anything compelling.. instead it is just slow and has bad driver support currently.
    
    XP, OSX, ubuntu
    
    cheers